EPIC FURY: Trump's Play to Starve the Dragon?

Bloomberg reported Thursday that Beijing "told the country’s top oil refiners to suspend exports of diesel and gasoline" as Operation Epic Fury continues disrupting oil shipments out of the Persian Gulf. "China’s curbs just six days into a war reflect a scramble across Asia to prioritize domestic needs as the crisis in the Middle East deepens."

China imports "about 11 million barrels of crude per day," my Townhall colleague Walter Curt added on X this morning, "with roughly 40-45% of that flowing through the Strait of Hormuz."

And yes, while China is a net importer of oil and natural gas — and yugely so — the Communist nation exports refined products including gasoline, diesel, jet fuel, and marine bunker fuel, largely to Southeast Asian, South Pacific, and African nations.

But not as of today.

"Officials from the National Development and Reform Commission, the country’s top economic planner," Bloomberg [paywalled link] continued, "called for a temporary suspension of refined product shipments that would begin immediately."

It isn't just China, either, according to the same report: "With virtually no oil or fuel making its way out of the Persian Gulf since US and Israeli attacks began at the weekend, refiners from Japan to Indonesia and India have begun cutting back run rates and suspending exports."

I had a brief item about this earlier today on Instapundit, but the news kept nagging at me because it's worth a deeper look — and, as it turns out, the petroleum exports angle might be the least interesting part.

The first addition, as Curt noted, is that China's "strategic petroleum reserves are estimated by analysts at around 90-100 days of total consumption," which ought to be more than enough for a war hardly anyone expects to last that long. But Politico reported Thursday that U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) asked the Pentagon "to send more military intelligence officers to its headquarters in Tampa, Florida, to support operations against Iran for at least 100 days but likely through September."

As I wrote earlier this week, I hope for a short campaign, but maybe that isn't in the cards.

Or maybe CENTCOM's request — leaked to Politico for worldwide dissemination — is a warning to whoever is in charge of Iran that we won't quit before they do, so they might as well quit now.

Another possibility is that the Trump administration did indeed want to send a message, but to Beijing, not Tehran.

"We're willing to disrupt Persian Gulf oil exports until it hurts you because we have all we need for ourselves and our friends right here, thank you very much, Comrade Xi."

If that is the case — and probably nobody outside the administration has anything better than informed guesses — it certainly fits the developing broader picture we're getting of President Donald Trump's strategic vision.

The short version is first securing the Western Hemisphere (Panama Canal, Venezuela, Cuba) from the worst of Chinese influence, then putting the squeeze on them elsewhere to re-establish American dominance. Iran is the Middle East lynchpin of Beijing's global ambitions, so it's my belief that Trump sees that regime as something that must be removed or co-opted.

The rest... well, this is pretty wild stuff involving Russia, courtesy of tech and finance guy G.C. Cooke:

The argument is that a back-channel deal is already taking shape. Russia, increasingly squeezed and looking for off-ramps, begins redirecting energy exports toward Western markets. Out of self-interest, not friendship. In return, Moscow gets energy revenue guarantees and a pathway back to the global trading system. Canada, with its existing Arctic and energy ties, becomes the diplomatic bridge.
The result is a North American–Russian energy alignment that removes China's last major source of leverage.

You might want to click over to X to read Cooke's entire piece because it's fascinating stuff — but not before finishing up here, naturally.

I'll admit up front that I have a natural bias toward buying into Cooke's theory, because it fulfills my desire to welcome Russia back into the West for the first time since the Bolsheviks ruined everything. West + Russia isn't always a natural fit — it took a determined effort by Peter the Great to make it happen the first time, and very little effort by the got-dam Communists to blow it apart.

But surely, West + Russia is a better and more natural fit than Russia's increasing vassalage to China.

Anyway, all of this is speculation, and even if it does capture Trump's intentions, there's no telling how things will play out in reality.

But current events sure do lend themselves to some fascinating speculation, so stick with me as we try to fathom the unfathomable.

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