I think all of us have those people in our lives who talk a good game about how they'll always support us in our time of need, but when that time of need actually materializes, they realize there's actual work or stakes involved and don't show up. At worst, they ignore your calls and texts or tell you they have a "scratchy throat" and wouldn't want to get you sick. At best, they send good vibes and pump you up, but then they go on about their lives.
That's sort of where Cuba finds itself at the moment, which was exactly Donald Trump and Marco Rubio's goal with renewed pressure, including proposing secondary tariffs on any country willing to provide the country with oil, in recent weeks.
It's working.
This is my third Cuba update since Friday, but things are moving faster than I can write them. Just to recap for those of you who may have missed it, the country is running out of oil and infrastructure is collapsing worse than it already was. Schools are canceling classes. Hospitals are canceling surgeries. I just watched a video where a guy talks about how he cooks food for three families on his street using what charcoal and wood he can find every night. Hotels are shutting down. International businesses and embassies are sending out warnings to people to get out or prepare for long periods without electricity and water.
However, getting out doesn't look particularly easy at the moment. As I mentioned on Monday, the country released an official NOTAM, stating that planes would not be able to refuel at nine airports there. That's led to reduced and canceled flights by many major airlines, stranded tourists, and a lot of panic and chaos.
What I find the most interesting is just how quickly Cuba's partners and allies are backing away. They may not be backing away quietly, but like those fairweather friends and family members, they're not exactly sending help. It's proof of just how much leverage the United States has over the world at the moment, and if it's successful, I think it's a Trump masterclass we'll study for years to come.
One of the most recent developments is that Guatemala will stop participating in Cuba's forced labor programs — this is basically where the Cuban regime sends doctors and other professionals to other countries, treats them poorly, and pockets the revenue. It's barely a step above slave labor. The two countries currently have a Health Cooperation Agreement, and Guatemala's Ministry of Foreign Affairs has announced that in 2026, it will not renew it and will phase the labor out at the discretion of the Ministry of Public Health and Social Assistance (MSPAS). It ends a 27-year-old relationship.
Something else that I mentioned on Monday is that Nicaragua — whose current dictator, Daniel Ortega, has long been a close ally of Fidel Castro and a lifelong member of Latin America's “I Hate the United States” club — is also stepping up by shutting down the air bridge that allowed Cubans to flee without a visa and travel to the United States and other countries. It was designed to look like a humanitarian gesture, but many experts say it was actually a way to weaponize migration, much like Nicolás Maduro did. It started in 2021, when Ortega was able to take advantage of Joe Biden's open borders.
Even Venezuela has announced that its state airline, Conviasa, is suspending its Caracas—Havana—Managua route for the immediate future due to the lack of jet fuel and Nicaragua's new visa rules. Of course, it's also stopped shipments of oil to Cuba while Trump is running the show.
And, even though Narco-President Claudia Sheinbaum has been quite mouthy about it — she denounces Trump's actions daily, on the verge of tears — Mexico continues to halt its "humanitarian" oil shipments to Cuba. As I said on Monday, she has sent the Mexican Navy with several tons of food and hygiene products, but you can't operate your airports and electric grid with beans and powdered milk.
Beyond the Western Hemisphere, it seems as though Cuba's most likely saviors, Russia and China, have sent all the good vibes, but they haven't showed up to do the physical or emotional labor. Russia has accused the U.S. of suffocating or putting a chokehold on Cuba, and it says it's in constant contact with the Cuban regime. China says it supports Cuba's sovereignty and opposes foreign interference. It also says it will provide help...to the best of its ability.
The thing is, no help is actually coming. No oil tankers have set sail for the Caribbean. There's no military assistance. Of course, none of this is surprising, considering Russia is tied up in its own backyard, and China is taking blow after blow in the Western Hemisphere lately now that the U.S. has grown some cojones.
This could certainly change, but it seems unlikely. It actually reminds me a lot of the situation in Venezuela late last year. In December, a reporter asked Rubio if he was afraid of Russian escalation, and he more or less laughed it off.
"Yeah, we’re not concerned about an escalation with Russia with regards to Venezuela," he said. "I mean, we’ve always expected them to provide rhetorical support for the Maduro regime. I think they have their hands full in Ukraine... but at the end of the day, I expected them to say what they were going to say. The rhetorical support... it’s not a factor in how we consider this whole thing."
Different country, same vibe.
Here in the United States, Cuban-American members of Congress are working to intensify the pressure on the regime alongside the Trump administration. Rep. Mario Díaz-Balart (R-Fla.) has announced that he's urging the U.S. Department of Justice (DOJ) to charge Raúl Castro with murder in connection with the Brothers to the Rescue planes he had shot down on February 24, 1996, for example.
"We will officially be asking that Raúl Castro be prosecuted for the murder of these four individuals, three Americans, people from the United States, in cold blood," he said during a radio appearance on Tuesday. "Raúl Castro himself has stated that he gave the order and we have evidence of that. He said it publicly."
He also assured that Trump would place even more pressure on the regime in the weeks to come, stating: "This tyranny will not survive this president."
It's something Mike Hammer, our Cuban chargé d'affaires, echoed in a recent interview with Telemundo, while confirming that the Trump administration is in talks with people inside the regime.
"Are we talking about days, weeks, months to see that regime fall?" the interviewer asked.
"That's unknown, but I believe there will be a change in 2026," Hammer said. "There will be a change; it's simply not sustainable. And I believe, well, I know."
The interviewer then asked what that change will look like. Hammer replied: "We'll see, I can't go into details on that. Obviously, there are conversations with some very high-ranking people within the regime. Others won't be aware of them. There are some who come out and make a statement: 'No, no, there's nothing.' And then suddenly, a day or two later, they say: 'Well...' It has to be done the way we're doing it."
Based on that interview, which you can watch in its entirety here (it's in Spanish), it sounds like Cuba's future will look a lot like what's happening Venezuela right now. Once key members of the regime are gone, an insider will, under maximum pressure from the Trump administration, function as head of state like Delcy Rodríguez is now until things are stable and elections can be held.
Based on my own observations, I think the difference might be that Cuba's opposition isn't as organized as Venezuela's, but the Cuban people are fed up, and by all accounts, have decided that "the revolution" has failed. I also trust Rubio knows the situation better than practically anyone and will be the person to see it through to the right outcome.
The question now becomes when and how does it start?
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