Every election cycle, Democrats push the narrative that they’re finally on the verge of turning Texas blue. Sure enough, 2026 is no different, and the media narrative sounds plausible enough to make some Republicans nervous. Should they be? Or are we watching Democrats once again get their hopes up and throw away money at a race destined for failure?
The 2026 Texas Senate race is shaping up to be one of the most talked-about contests of the midterm season. For the left, this is the latest chapter in a decades-long obsession. Texas has been their white whale since the 1990s. Every election brings bold predictions that this time it’s different, only for those dreams to end up splattered on the map in Republican red. Now they’re once again hyping a “credible chance” to flip a Senate seat — a chance that polls suggest exists, at least on paper.
The University of Texas/Texas Politics Project’s latest numbers show Rep. Jasmine Crockett leading the Democratic primary with 56% over state Rep. James Talarico’s 44%. On the Republican side, Attorney General Ken Paxton is narrowly ahead of Sen. John Cornyn, 36% to 34%, with Rep. Wesley Hunt sitting in third at 26%. Paxton’s lead has some GOP operatives sweating, not because he can’t win, but because his general election numbers look riskier against certain Democratic challengers.
According to internal Senate Republican polling obtained by Politico, Cornyn leads Talarico by three points and Crockett by seven in head-to-head matchups. Paxton, meanwhile, trails Talarico by three but edges out Crockett by one. That’s enough to get establishment Republicans warning wealthy donors that a Paxton nomination would make the race “more expensive and less predictable.”
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Naturally, Democrats smell opportunity. They’re preparing to dump millions into Texas this fall, and they certainly think they can win. But can they?
Obviously, the answer is, “They could.” But is that likely? I’m not so sure. Texas is still Texas. Donald Trump won it by 14 points in 2024, and while he’s not on the ballot in November, there’s little reason to believe there would be such a massive swing to the left. If there really were a fundamental shift happening, it would be showing up everywhere, not just in one Senate poll.
The national environment, however, tells a different story. The generic congressional ballot this year has Democrats up just 4.6 points, according to RealClearPolitics, which is on par with the GOP’s lead back in 2022 at this point in the season, but well behind the +9.6 lead Democrats had back in 2018.
That doesn’t mean Democrats couldn’t make things interesting. They might even force the GOP to spend more money defending what should be safe turf. But flipping Texas seems highly improbable. I dare say it’s fantasy. Republicans don’t need to panic; they just need to avoid tearing each other apart long enough to remember the basics: unity wins, division loses.
We go through this every cycle. And pretty much the same thing happens every time: Republicans get a little worried, Democrats get really excited and spend a lot of money, and then the Republican wins.
