"Where are the Iranian uprisings?" is the question Fox News host Laura Ingraham looked into with David Nasser on Tuesday evening, and for anyone hoping for regime change in the Islamic Republic, perhaps it's the question. "The regime’s currency is FEAR," the Iran native told her, adding, “The Iranian people are being strategic. Despite the fear, many are preparing for the moment when this regime is finally weakened.”
But like any contagion, fear requires some means of transmission — or in this case, brutal enforcement by Iran's Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC).
So what happens when the regime's terror units don't get paid?
What happens when the money runs out, as new satellite photos show it might?
Well now, it’s confirmed the Mullah Regime can’t make the next payroll.
— Trent Telenko (@TrentTelenko) March 11, 2026
This is where things start to fall apart for the Regime Security Forces. https://t.co/lTFImMPibP
Iran's Asaluyeh gas and petrochemical complex is the largest in the world and an economic powerhouse, providing more than half of the regime's income via LNG and petchem exports. While "next payroll" and "no more oil exports to China" might prove to be exaggerations, any reduction in shipping from Asaluyeh — plainly seen in those images — presents Tehran with a serious cash-flow problem.
Just not quite yet.
"Iran is exporting more oil through the Strait of Hormuz than before the war," the Wall Street Journal reported late Tuesday, "showing it is in control of a strategic waterway that it has closed off to the rest of the region’s oil producers." But the reduced shipping activity indicates that those increased shipments won't continue — the regime just isn't loading ships like it did before the campaign began.
And according to the more recent available reports, neither the U.S. nor Israel has yet struck Asaluyeh. Rising gas prices in the West (China, too) might give pause. Although reports that Iran has begun laying mines in the Strait of Hormuz might indicate that even the regime has given up on maintaining exports.
Also, Asaluyeh supplies the vast majority of Iran's natural gas for domestic electricity and heating. Destroying it might alienate the very people we hope will overthrow the regime. Still, the lack of shipping has to be indicative of something.
I should also mention that Asaluyeh is the scene of several strikes and protests in recent months, leading to an increased IRGC presence. This report is from February 19:
An employee in industries linked to the South Pars gas field told The Media Line that workers across different sectors in Asaluyeh had begun holding gatherings, protests, and strikes weeks before nationwide demonstrations started in Iran.
Their demands focused on higher wages and improved benefits. However, the IRGC, which serves as the main executor of projects in these major petrochemical industries and gas complexes, responded with mass arrests, transferring protesting workers to its facilities in an effort to prevent the spread of labor strikes. Despite these measures, protests and work stoppages have reportedly expanded to other parts of Asaluyeh.
If Tehran starts missing IRGC payrolls, that's when things in Asaluyeh might get really interesting. Not to mention the rest of the country.
Some might stand and fight, regardless, caught in a dead-end/no-win situation. Others, like this purported Basij militiaman, might choose desertion:
A IRGC Basij member filmed himself leaving his post, saying he believes the Islamic regime is over.
— Open Source Intel (@Osint613) March 10, 2026
Standing inside what he says is a Basij barracks that used to be a school, he explains that everyone there has already left.
“Everyone is gone or leaving. I’m going home too,” he… pic.twitter.com/wPprY8O4vf
Here's the translation courtesy of Grok: "This is the Basij base [note: 'footbridge' in subs is likely auto-error for 'paygah' meaning outpost/post], which was a mosque until some time ago. Everyone came out from here and left. I'm going home too. It seems our regime's work is done and we have to surrender. I just hope people don't take revenge on us."
The video has yet to be independently verified, so take it with a grain of salt. But if the money runs out, the only thing that might keep IRGC or their subordinate Basij militiamen fighting is the same fear of retribution that they're supposed to be the ones creating.
UPDATE: A related item crossed my desk just minutes after filing this column, and it seems worth including.
🚨 Breaking: The main data center of Bank Sepah, Iran's largest bank, was attacked tonight. The bank pays the salaries to all regime forces. pic.twitter.com/NFqHT4dgoh
— Dr. Eli David (@DrEliDavid) March 11, 2026
Stay tuned...
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