"I'd like to die on Mars, just not on impact," SpaceX founder Elon Musk half-joked to a capacity SXSW crowd in 2013, reiterating the launch company's core mission of establishing a self-sustaining human colony on the Red Planet within his lifetime — and his lifelong dream of being one of those colonists.
It seems almost impossible that just 13 years ago, SpaceX had yet to land a Falcon 9 booster rocket, much less reuse one. Yet since then, the Falcon is now so inexpensive and reliable that it launched more than 150 times in 2025 alone, accounting for more than 80% of all the mass lifted into orbit last year. While no other company has yet to master it, reusable boosters are the norm for SpaceX, and its Starship rocket — still in development — promises to reduce launch costs by at least one order of magnitude.
Times change. So do dreams.
"For those unaware," Musk posted to X (another Musk company) on Sunday, "SpaceX has already shifted focus to building a self-growing city on the Moon, as we can potentially achieve that in less than 10 years, whereas Mars would take 20+ years."
"It is only possible to travel to Mars when the planets align every 26 months (six month trip time), whereas we can launch to the Moon every 10 days (2 day trip time). This means we can iterate much faster to complete a Moon city than a Mars city."
That's always been true — orbital mechanics are unforgiving in the extreme — but Starship development stalled badly enough in 2025 that a change in focus was perhaps inevitable. Musk had hoped to launch multiple Starships late this year on an unmanned exploratory/proof-of-concept mission during the next Mars launch window (the optimal Earth-Mars transfer opportunity using a fuel-efficient Hohmann transfer orbit).
But too many technologies and processes remain unproven, including the orbital refueling that makes it possible for Starship to reach Mars. Or even Luna, for that matter. Starship's unprecedented cargo capacity for deep-space missions is only possible through orbital refueling performed by other Starships acting as LEO gas stations.
Direct-transfer windows to Luna — with flight times of just three to five days — open roughly twice per month. The Hohmann window to Mars opens about every 26 months, with a flight time of up to nine months. Another technology SpaceX has yet to fully iterate is crew protection from radiation during such a long flight.
Iteration is the key, and at 54 years old, Musk probably can't afford the time it will take to iterate Starship for manned Mars missions — certainly not on the scale needed to make life even semi-tolerable for, say, an aging launch company founder
"It’s not any easier landing on the moon," space photographer Andrew McCarthy added, "but once getting mass to the moon is a solved problem Mars becomes so much easier."
Indeed.
Musk also said that SpaceX's core mission remains unchanged, to "extend consciousness and life as we know it to the stars."
"Aim for the moon," they say, because "If you miss, you may hit a star."
I'd still love to see human footprints on Mars in my lifetime, but if the alternative is a large and growing American population on Luna, I'll take it.
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