Here’s a question that’s tailor-made for the over-50 crowd: Over the course of your (long) life, how many of your most significant moments were black swan events?
Personally and globally. Your professional trajectory and industrywide paradigm shifts. Family life and geopolitical gamechangers.
All of ‘em!
How many of the greatest, most memorable moments of your life came out of near-total left field — but looking back on them, they almost feel predestined?
Humans are exponentially better at explaining history than predicting the future. Connecting the dots is our specialty: Whatever happens — no matter how absurdly improbable — will always inherit a well-written narrative.
COVID. 9/11. Social media. Oct. 7. Ukraine. The subprime housing crisis. Brexit. Chatbots. “Hope and Change.” Arab Spring. MAGA movement. Charlie Kirk.
That’s 12 black swan events in the last 25 years!
Before they occurred, sure, someone — somewhere — spitballed the possibility. Just like before 9/11, sure, we had all thought about terrorism and planes.
But we didn’t take it seriously until afterwards.
It’s why long-term predictions are so unreliable: We can track the trendlines that follow a straight line with uncanny accuracy, but once there’s a curve(ball), all bets are off. We can’t predict what we don’t see coming.
Which is a big problem for wannabe political prophets, because black swan events change history WAY more than incrementalism.
It was certainly the story of the last century. From the assassination of Archduke Franz Ferdinand in 1914 to the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991, it was one black swan event after another. Chances are excellent that the tale of the 21st century will be more of the same.
So what’s the next black swan event gonna be?
By definition, we don’t really know: Could be this, could be that. But based on previous black swan events, we can develop a four-point profile.
- Black swan events are sudden.
- They trigger a “tipping point” of the political, technological, economic, and/or civilian status quo.
- They arise from preexisting problem(s) that haven’t been adequately addressed.
- They exacerbate sociopolitical faultlines.
Which means unaddressed problems that exacerbate sociopolitical fault lines — leading to a sudden “tipping point” moment — are our intellectual sweet spot.
And unfortunately, that points us in a dark, disturbing direction.
PRediction: A political assassination of a high-profile politician, influencer, or activist is (probably) our most likely black swan candidate.
Neither party has a monopoly on weirdos and sociopaths. (Hey, have you been on X lately?) But I’m far more leery of left-wing violence than right-wing violence, based on the DSA’s open admiration of anti-American revolutionaries, recent history (Charlie Kirk, repeated attempts on President Donald Trump’s life, Steve Scalise, Brett Kavanaugh, ICE riots, BLM riots, anti-Israel lawbreaking, etc.), and the left’s rising acceptance of political violence.
One nutjob with a weapon can change history in a flash. It’s happened before.
Two years and one month ago, Thomas Matthew Crooks nearly did it again.
Fame doesn’t always come with money. That’s especially dangerous in 2026, because there’s a tier of political targets who’ve earned national name recognition — they’re already celebrities — but can’t afford round-the-clock security protection.
Ben Shapiro spends “seven figures” annually on his security. (And for good reason, too.) But most politicians and commentators don’t: It’s too expensive.
There’s a rung of politicos who are in the unfortunate position of being both famous — and of (semi-)modest means. It’s actually a fairly well-sized population pool.
Lots of compelling names to choose from.
They’re probably the most vulnerable ones of all.
PRojection: Politically motivated assassinations are top-of-mind, but economically motivated assassinations are a distinct possibility, too, I’m afraid.
Luigi Mangione might go down in history as a one-off — a troubled rich kid who killed a healthcare CEO, went to jail, and was never heard from again.
Or he could be remembered as the harbinger of a deadly new age: open economic warfare against the free market.
Anyone who’s a billionaire is a potential target, because billionaires shouldn’t even exist. (And the world’s only one-time trillionaire is, quite naturally, the most tempting target of all.) Hey, if you’re a committed socialist, what’s the harm in killing someone who shouldn’t even be here — and whose very existence is immoral?
But it’s much more than just billionaires. Businesspeople who represent key industries — data centers, banks, AI, Flock cameras, social media — could be targeted, too.
It’s already happened to the healthcare industry. Who’s to say that’s where it ends?
Maybe the opposite is true: Maybe healthcare was where it started — and the WORST is yet to come.
There’s not always a bright dividing line between politics and economics. Sometimes, they’re indistinguishable.
And sometimes, there’s also religious fervor/hate mixed in.
All three intersect on high-profile business deals between big U.S. companies that are vulnerable to public/political pressure. Even more so if the CEOs are Jewish and/or pro-Israel.
It’s the perfect Venn diagram of radical extremism.
Along with vulnerable politicos, these are, I’m afraid, the next most-likely candidates for a black swan catastrophe.
Speaking of which…
PRaise: Actor Mark Ruffalo, best-known for playing Bruce Banner/Hulk in the Disney-owned Marvel Cinematic Universe, came out swinging against the Paramount-Warner Bros merger.
As an actor, he could’ve focused his opposition on antitrust concerns. Or on monopolies devouring jobs. Or on competition, opportunity, and choice.
But he didn’t.
In fact, he didn’t even mention ANY of that until his last paragraph!
Instead — to derail a possible merger of U.S. entertainment companies (!) — he attacked Israel, falsely accused it of genocide (and apartheid), and accused the Jewish businessmen in charge of “consolidating the wealth of the world for their own power and concentrated dominance.”
On Friday, the 4x Oscar nominee called out the Ellisons ties to Oracle, sharing a video of the tech company’s executive vice chair Safra Catz discussing how they made some “really profoundly scary technology” available to the Israeli military amid the ongoing Israel-Hamas conflict.
“This is the company that Larry Ellison is using to fund his son David’s Warner Bros acquisition,” wrote Ruffalo with the clip on his Instagram Story. “These ‘really profoundly scary technologies’ will most likely be merged into one of the largest media conglomerates in the world and one day used on you. Look how she revels in what we now have come to see as a genocide, which was built on an apartheid system of oppression powered by Oracle.”
“There is an old saying. ‘The way you do one thing is the way you do everything.’ From one of the biggest tech companies in the world. Powering some of the most destructive and inhuman forces in the world. Why has Trump pushed this illegal merger through? Larry Ellison will own most of ‘Para Bros’. Larry is a classic Oligarch. They are crushing workers and consolidating the wealth of the world for their own power and concentrated dominance,” he continued.
Ruffalo wrote, “We have a chance to stop this. There are 12 state Attorneys General suing to block this merger. It will be catastrophic for our film industry. There will be a loss of 4500 direct filmmaking jobs and the loss of another 10k ancillary jobs. Mergers like this are almost always bad for workers, consumers, and the industry they tend to dominate. It’s a classic antitrust case. It will hike up the cost of cable and flatten out competition. This means less choice for our audiences. It also concentrates an enormous amount of creative control to companies that say and do things like this strange woman from Oracle. Really profoundly scary people.”
There was a time when Paramount would’ve instantly rolled over, capitulating to the left-wing mob. That’s because there was a time when ALL businesses rolled over and showed their bellies whenever the left-wing mob gnashed their synthetic teeth. (AOC called this time “Woke 1.”)
Nike did it. The NFL did it. Bud Light did it. Facebook, YouTube, Google, and Twitter did it. And Disney did it with such extreme gusto, it fired Gina Carano for being too conservative — while turning a blind eye to Mark Ruffalo trafficking in antisemitic tropes and loudly echoing every far-left grievance.
Fortunately, that time is over: It ended when Donald Trump won in 2024.
And now, businesses are free to call out left-wing antisemitism when they see it:
Paramount just issued a lengthy statement responding to @MarkRuffalo:
— Brian Stelter (@brianstelter) August 21, 2026
"We are, as always, troubled when antisemitic tropes are invoked in purported service of a business dispute. Words like ‘genocide’ and ‘apartheid,’ applied to a corporate transaction, aren’t just wrong —… https://t.co/UZqWumZL9w
And so are the rest of us:
Mark Ruffalo is now claiming he’s not antisemitic after using classic tropes in a business dispute.
— Paul A. Szypula 🇺🇸 (@Bubblebathgirl) August 22, 2026
He dragged “genocide” and “apartheid” into an attack on the Paramount merger, specifically targeting Jewish executives and their ties to Israel. Paramount correctly called it what…
Ruffalo has always been an unhinged anti-Semite, but there is a method to his current madness. He is seeking to establish that American Jews who support Israel cannot conduct business. As Jews in Nazi Germany could not conduct business. https://t.co/eFRdcPKYZd
— Ayn Reagan (@AynReagan) August 22, 2026
Good. Antisemitism shouldn’t be normalized.
PRedators: In Marvel lore, when Bruce Banner gets angry, he gets very, very strong — and, alas, very, very stupid.
Mark Ruffalo is a talented actor. He’s skilled at pretending to be someone more interesting. In the MCU, he pretends to be Dr. Bruce Banner, a spectacularly brilliant scientist with seven PhDs.
But when Mark Ruffalo opens his mouth in real life, a startling metamorphosis occurs.
The more Ruffalo speaks, the stupider he gets. (So I guess he’s kinda-sorta like the Hulk… only without that pesky “getting stronger” part.)
It’s unclear where Ruffalo gained his piercing insights and expertise in global politics. As far as I can tell, he never went to college and worked as a bartender for about a decade before catching his big break in Hollywood. (Nothing wrong with that, of course. Still, not exactly a heroic “origin story” for such a political genius.)
Since then, he’s weighed in on the Brazilian presidential election, endorsing one of the candidates. (Which he later withdrew.) He’s weighed in on the U.S. presidential election, endorsing Bernie Sanders. He weighed in on the United Kingdom general election, endorsing Jeremy Corbyn. He weighed in on Venezuela, criticizing U.S. foreign policy. He weighed in on the Kyle Rittenhouse verdict, claiming Rittenhouse should’ve been found guilty of murder. He weighed in on Renee Good’s death, wearing a “Be Good” pin to the Golden Globes. He’s weighed in on the Paramount-Warner Bros merger, parroting stats and talking points that he almost certainly heard from someone else.
And, of course, he’s weighed in — repeatedly — about Israel’s imaginary “war crimes,” “genocide,” and “apartheid.”
When did Ruffalo become an expert on Brazil, the UK, America, Israel, Venezuela, and Gaza? When did he master all the nuances of U.S. legal prudence? (I graduated from law school and still find it confusing.)
Uh, “RUFFALO SMASH!!” I guess.
Interestingly, five years earlier, he actually rejected the “genocide” blood libel:
I have reflected & wanted to apologize for posts during the recent Israel/Hamas fighting that suggested Israel is committing “genocide”. It’s not accurate, it’s inflammatory, disrespectful & is being used to justify antisemitism here & abroad. Now is the time to avoid hyperbole.
— Mark Ruffalo (@MarkRuffalo) May 25, 2021
And now, genocide is why a Jewish-American businessman shouldn’t be allowed to merge two entertainment companies — and inaccurately justifying antisemitism is no longer a problem.
Yup. A “startling metamorphosis” indeed.
