PRedictions, PRojections, PRaise, and PRedators: Saying Goodbye to Paradise

(tl/dr: we grew two humans and treaded water with cats.)

I’ve written about “Alois” before — our friend/family who’s suffering cognitive decline. Unfortunately, Alois’ condition has worsened over the past few months, and s/he was recently placed in an assisted living facility.

So we rented the house right next door. Now, we’re Alois’ neighbors.

Since arriving in Virginia on Monday, I’ve seen Alois every day. That alone makes this trip worth it. Cognitive decline is a brutal, unforgiving, progressive disease, but I’m hopeful there’s still time to make a few more magical memories.

We’ve made some already.

Yet the sadness is inescapable. Definitionally, progressive diseases always get worse. Everyone sees the storm clouds: They’re closing in fast.

This is a tragedy waiting to happen.

And it’s also dawned on me that one day, I might suffer from cognitive decline, too — but because I’m doing the right thing with Alois, my kids would feel like losers if they abandoned me in a God-forsaken old age home. (They’d basically be admitting they’re worse people than me, and they’re WAY too competitive for that.) So maybe, on a subconscious level, I’m playing the long game?

Living in Tampa Bay insulated us from all this Virginia drama. We were aware of it, of course, but geography made it a little easier to ignore: “Out of sight, out of mind.” We’ve been in Virginia for less than a week, but it’s already taken an emotional toll. It’s exhausting — in fact, it kind of feels like working out again after an extended hiatus. 

So naturally, we’re sore: Our “emotional muscles” had atrophied.

But there’s an upside to moving to a new city: You get to try new things. After decades in the same place, you eventually eat at all the restaurants and explore everything worth exploring. You know it like the back of your hand. The novelty expired years ago.

Eventually, familiarity breeds contempt. 

Now, every restaurant is different. The streets are all different, too. (Thank God for Google Maps.) The trees, skyline, hills, and birds don’t look anything like Florida. No fun little lizards running around everywhere. (Fun fact: If you’re in Florida and catch a cockroach, if you flip it on its back and leave it outside, within 30 seconds a lizard will race over and eat it. My kids loved that: It was our mini version of Jurassic Park — and honestly, it felt more moral than simply squashing the bug, ‘cause this way, at least we were still contributing to the circle of life.)

That was then. Today, no more Florida lizards, Florida sun, Florida pubs, or Florida friends. 

It’s a lot to get used to.

PRediction: Donald Trump is going to approve of the Iran peace deal. Yesterday, I predicted that if Trump were to reject the peace deal, he’d likely do it over the weekend. If that was his strategy, he’s running out of time: The closer we get to Monday, the less beneficial the weekend news dump.

Which strengthens the theory that he’s waiting for the start of the business week to deliver the “good news” to the financial markets.

President Trump has phrased his contemplation as a “final determination” on whether or not to accept the Iran deal. That, however, was probably a mistake.

PRojection: My guess is, President Trump adopted this posture for PR reasons: With the phrase “final determination,” he’s made it clear to the world that Donald J. Trump — and Donald J. Trump alone — is in the driver’s seat. He’s in charge, not the mullahs. And the war will end whenever he says it will.

I understand why he thinks he’s communicating that, but that’s not how it’ll be interpreted. The exact opposite is true.

Instead, it’ll look like Iranian strength and moxie forced President Trump to sign a deal that’s flawed, imperfect, and worlds removed from the “unconditional surrender” he had promised. After all, if this deal was legitimately great, he wouldn’t have spent days deciding whether or not to agree to it.

If the deal had everything he wanted, he would’ve signed it immediately.

The Dems will frame the Iran War as a horrible, boneheaded calamity that made everything worse (including gas prices). Trump will counter by selling it as a tremendous win for the American people — that the juice was 100% worth the squeeze, and nobody could’ve done it better than Trump. This peace deal isn’t just a good one — it’s one of the greatest deals ever!

Unfortunately, his PR tactics are undermining his argument.

PRaise: To the brave men and women of the American and Israeli Armed Forces. Unless I’m misreading the tea leaves, it certainly looks like we’re getting precariously close to ending the Iran War without an “unconditional surrender,” regime change, or the destruction of Iran’s ballistic missiles. (Among other things.)

We’ll be back to playing hide-the-atom with the mullahs in no time, because no matter the agreement’s legalese, Iran will do its best to circumvent it. You know it, I know it, and the American people know it. And if this deal frees up billions of U.S. dollars in assets, we also know a large portion will be spent to rebuild Iran’s military and fund terrorist proxies.

But on the other hand, we unquestionably degraded Iran’s nuclear program. Its navy, air force, and air defense are no more. The supreme leader is dead, along with most of his high-ranking sandal-lickers. The Iranian economy is running on fumes.

No matter what Donald Trump may ultimately decide, our soldiers, sailors, Marines, and pilots did their part — and they did it with honor and distinction. 

PRedators: Let’s give this one to me, because I’m assuming President Trump is timing his Iran announcement for PR reasons. 

It’s entirely possible that this assumption is wrong: Maybe his “final determination” is happening in real time, and he really, truly hasn’t made up his mind yet — but when he has, he’ll say so on his own timetable — the markets be damned, because he recognizes the seriousness of the situation. A nuclear-armed Iran isn’t something you fool around with.

I sure hope so.

In fact, I’d be absolutely DELIGHTED to be a PRedator. Couldn’t be happier!

Even one from (ugh) Virginia.