It’s called brinkmanship diplomacy, and it’s not a new thing: President Dwight D. Eisenhower — who wasn’t exactly a military novice — relied on it extensively in the 1950s. Basically, it’s a negotiating tactic where you gain the upper hand by escalating tensions to the “brink” of calamity.
But brinkmanship doesn’t always work. You need two specific conditions:
- The other side must believe that you intend to follow through with the threat: Credibility is a required ingredient.
- Your tolerance for “pain” must be greater than your adversary’s.
Madman theory works hand-in-glove with brinkmanship diplomacy. It’s a credibility-booster: If only a “madman” would risk going to the brink, the crazier you appear to be, the more believable your threat.
And since it’s impossible to make rational risk-reward calculations against an irrational actor, your opponent is incentivized to take the offramp earlier instead of later.
It forces the other side to blink first, because accepting a deal — even an imperfect deal — is a helluva lot better than risking the alternative. Even for the Iranians, there comes a time when the juice ain’t worth the squeeze.
Which is why the Strait of Hormuz is now open — and Iran ceded to Trump’s demands only after being threatened with a civilization-ending catastrophe.
This is a victory for the United States that President Trump and our incredible military made happen.
— Karoline Leavitt (@PressSec) April 8, 2026
From the very beginning of Operation Epic Fury, President Trump estimated this would be a 4-6 week operation.
Thanks to the unbelievable capabilities of our warriors, we have…
We still don’t know the final terms of an eventual Iran-U.S. peace agreement, but we do know this:
- Iran’s military was pounded for 38 days by the U.S. and Israel. Its navy and air force are gone; its hardware reduced to rubble. By every meaningful metric, Iran’s military has been dramatically degraded.
- Most of its leaders are dead.
- Its air defenses are utterly incapable of stopping American or Israeli attacks. Whenever we want to return, we can — and there’s absolutely nothing Iran can do about it.
President Trump was triumphant, taking a victory lap in media interviews.
As he told Agence France-Press (AFP), courtesy of France 24:
"Total and complete victory. 100 percent. No question about it," Trump told AFP in the brief call when asked if he was claiming victory with the ceasefire.
[…]
Trump insisted that the nuclear material would be covered by any peace deal.
"That will be perfectly taken care of, or I wouldn't have settled," Trump said, without giving any specifics about what would happen to the uranium.
Of course, Iran is Iran, and therefore declared victory, too. (The new motto of Iran: “Hey, not everyone here is dead! High-five!”) The same mainstream media that side-eyed every U.S. claim has already accepted Iran’s V-Day boasts as gospel:
MS NOW: Trump Desperately Wants to Claim Victory Over Iran — But the Facts Say Otherwise
Daily Beast: Trump Floats Absurd Fantasy to Cope With Iran Humiliation
Newsweek: Russia Responds to Trump’s Iran Ceasefire: ‘Crushing Defeat’
BBC: Iran Ceasefire Deal Gives Trump a Way Out of War
Daily Express: Trump Savaged After Humiliating Iran Defeat
The Telegraph: Iran Deal Is Not the Victory Trump Claims It Is
Al Jazeera: Tehran Celebrates as Iran, U.S. Agree to Two-Week Ceasefire
Raw Story: Iran Has Shown the World How to Defeat Trump
France 24: Declarations of Victory in Iran After Ceasefire Agreed With U.S.
CBC: Iran Ceasefire: ‘Huge Strategic Defeat for the U.S.’
The Mirror: Iran State TV Mocks Donald Trump’s Ceasefire as ‘a Humiliating Retreat’
The Times of India: Iran Declares ‘DEFEAT’ of Israel & U.S. After Trump Retreat, Truce Announcement
Buckle up, America: Those headlines are just the beginning. It’ll get worse before it gets better.
A global PR campaign is now underway to redefine the Iran War as a humiliating defeat for Trump, Israel, and American Exceptionalism.
Until a final agreement is reached, every ambiguity will be framed in pro-Iranian/anti-American terms. You’re going to see zillions of news stories about Iran “winning” control of the Strait of Hormuz, that the mullahs are stronger than ever, Trump’s horrible miscalculation, and even the “end of the American empire.” Anything — and everything — that justifies an anti-American worldview will be reported as fact.
Related: Bad News, Guys: The New York Times Says We Lost the War — and Iran Is Now a ‘Major World Power’
But their ultimate goal is bigger than President Trump: They want to delegitimize American Exceptionalism.
War is a horrible, terrible, evil, loathsome thing — and still entirely preferable to unchecked tyranny. Our Holy Scriptures are replete with examples of wars that weren’t just moral; they were morally demanded.
Because war is evil, but sometimes it’s a necessary evil.
The left is motivated by partisan gain: American politics is a zero-sum battle, so Trump must lose for the Dems to win. In the minds of leftists, the Orange Monster is “literally Hitler” and far more dangerous than the mullahs.
They’d rather Iran win than Donald Trump — so they’ll pretend Iran was the winner for as long as possible. (Domestically, it’s smart politics.)
Sames goes for our “allies” in Europe. Instead of admitting that a 38-day campaign that decimated Iran’s military, forced it to abandon nuclear weapons, eliminated its air force and navy, and turned its Supreme Leader into human confetti was an unparalleled U.S. victory, France, England, and the rest will sit smugly on the sidelines, crying crocodile tears over every unchecked box.
Their refrain: “See? The military wasn’t the answer; it makes everything worse.” (Because they weren’t being cowards; they were just really, really wise.)
The radical left, both domestically and internationally, won’t admit defeat until it’s 100% unavoidable. For the next two weeks, leftists will try to spin the Iran War into the Iraq War — because it’s their only available option. If they pull it off, it’ll take the American military option off the table for another 20 years.
But it won’t work. Despite being evil, horrible, and terrible, war is also honest and transparent. The outcome of a war is what it is; you can’t “spin” your way to victory.
Not over the long-term. That’s beyond the scope of PR.
If President Trump is telling the truth — and I believe he is — the Democratic Party, our NATO “allies,” the mainstream media, Iran’s X account, and/or Tucker Carlson are incapable of spinning the truth into a lie. No matter how hard they try.
PR is useful at attaching adjectives to nouns, but it’s incapable of changing the nouns themselves. It’s a marketing tool, not a magic trick.
So don’t fret about what you read over the next two weeks. It’ll be awful, but it’s also momentary. Losing a news cycle in early April won’t matter a lick by the first Tuesday of November, because by November, the truth will be obvious.
Instead, focus on what we’ve learned over the past 38 days:
- The American military is an unparalleled vehicle for extracting concessions from our adversaries — whether they’re in Venezuela, Iran, or pretty much anywhere else. And as our Easter weekend rescue of an Air Force officer deep inside Iran’s borders demonstrated, our Armed Forces can accomplish things other militaries couldn’t even fathom. All we needed was a commander-in-chief with vision, wisdom, and the courage to use it correctly.
- Our European “allies” didn’t simply refuse to help; they increased the risk to American servicemen by denying us the use of bases and airspace. After 80+ years of guaranteeing Europe’s security with American blood and treasure, it’s clear that U.S. interests and European interests no longer converge. NATO’s irrelevance was on full global display.
- Liberals will side with the world’s worst actors over a Republican president. They’re reliably unreliable, always assuming the worst about America. Don’t try to win them over; work around them.
- The Groyper right wing, filled with mouthy isolationists like Tucker Carlson, Nick Fuentes, Megyn Kelly, and Candace Owens, has legitimized the horseshoe theory: Their hateful, vitriolic rhetoric is indistinguishable from the vilest lies of the left. At every turn, they sided with our enemy.
- Donald Trump is a helluva lot smarter, shrewder, and more tactical than his critics give him credit for. And perhaps that’s the biggest lesson of all: Instead of overreacting to every Truth Social post, let Trump cook!
Because, so far, the results are exceptional.
Just like America.
One Last Thing: 2026 is a critical year for America First. It began with Mayor Mamdani declaring war on “rugged individualism” and will reach a crescendo with the midterm elections. Nothing less than the fate of the America First movement teeters in the balance.
Never before have the political battle lines been so clearly defined. Win or lose, 2026 will transform our country.
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