Prediction: This war will end with Iran’s mullahs still in control. (At least, the ones that haven’t been killed yet.) Because it has to: We’re hoping the Iranian civilians will rise up and overthrow the government, but they can’t do that until the bombing stops.
Which means that immediately after America and Israel conclude their air strikes, Iran will claim victory because it’s still standing.
Whatever happens next will determine the long-term PR fallout of the Iran War — both in America and worldwide. If the Iranian people rebel, seize control of Tehran, and turn it into a Western democracy, President Donald Trump’s decision will be heralded as one of the bravest, smartest uses of military power in history.
But anything less than that?
There’ll be various degrees of blowback. Already, the hardcore isolationists are disillusioned; the “Peace at Any Price” crowd has left the MAGA coalition and is unlikely to return. As they see it, Trump broke his “no new wars” promise — and the fact that we partnered with Israel, which they view as evil, genocidal warmongers, rubbed (Kosher) salt in the wound.
So the bad news is, they’re already gone.
But the good news is, they’re a tiny sliver of the MAGA coalition. It’s not being widely reported by the mainstream media, but most of the Republican pushback isn’t from MAGA; it’s from the Never Trump crowd.
The [NBC News poll] found that 77 percent of Republicans back the strikes compared to 15 percent who did not support them. Self-identified MAGA-aligned Republicans overwhelmingly support the strikes at 90 percent, with 5 percent who disagree. [emphasis added]
When 90% of MAGA Republicans are standing with the president, obviously, any chatter of a GOP rebellion is vastly overstated. But because this 5% of anti-war critics are represented by high-profile influencers — the Tucker Carlson, Candace Owens, Nick Fuentes, Megyn Kelly, Marjorie Taylor Greene, and Andrew Tate crowd — and because the mainstream media gleefully amplifies their criticism, that 5% seems a helluva lot bigger than it actually is.
It’s probably the most overrepresented group in the media right now.
(And we know why: Carlson and company are “useful idiots” who are undermining the president, and as long as that’s true, they’ll continue to receive fawning praise from liberal journalists.)
Domestically, four questions will decide the political fate of the Iran War:
- How long will the war last? (The shorter, the better.)
- How many U.S. casualties? (The smaller, the better.)
- What did we lose? (The total cost in blood, political capital, and treasure.)
- What did we gain? (Was the Iranian threat permanently neutralized, and are we safer and more prosperous?)
You’ll notice that all four questions are rooted in reality. This means the U.S. political fallout won’t be based on PR spin; it’ll be based on results.
Which makes our war strategy clear: To quote Al Davis, “Just win, baby!”
Victory itself is the only litmus test that matters.
Not so for the mullahs. Their war strategy is less about reality and more about perception, because the reality is, the Supreme Leader is dead, Iran’s military is decimated, and most of its boats are at the bottom of the sea.
Iran lacks the means to determine the length of the war. Nor does it have the wherewithal to kill large numbers of American servicemen (thank God).
That’s why the first prong of its war strategy is focused on #3: spiking the global cost in blood, political capital, and treasure.
Which explains why Iran is attacking all its neighbors — including Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, Bahrain, Kuwait, Syria, the UAE, and more — specifically targeting economic sectors: The mullahs hope to create so much havoc that international pressure builds on the U.S. to cease their attacks.
Or, as the New York Times described it, “Iran’s Strategy: Expand the War, Increase the Cost, Outlast Trump.”
The Islamic Republic of Iran’s first priority is to survive. To do that, its leaders will want to drive up the cost of the war for President Trump — in terms of American casualties, energy costs and inflation — to try to persuade him to declare victory and go home.
Faced with the overwhelming firepower of the United States and Israel, diplomats and analysts say, Iran is working to enlarge the battlefield from its own territory to the broader region. The goals are to damage oil and gas infrastructure in neighboring countries, shut the Strait of Hormuz to shipping and curtail air traffic — all to disrupt the economies of the Persian Gulf and drive up global energy prices and inflation.
Basically, Iran wants to be such a destabilizing pain in the arse that its enemies conclude the juice ain’t worth the squeeze, pack up their bags, and return home:
“The war has become a test of wills and stamina,” said Vali Nasr of the Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies in Washington. “Iran is facing qualitatively superior militaries, so the strategy is to test their will by expanding the battlefield, complicating the war and increasing the danger to the world economy.”
The strategy is not complicated.
Ali Vaez, the Iran director of the Brussels-based think tank International Crisis Group, said, “The Iranians want to spread the pain as much as they can, regardless of the cost to themselves and burned relations with their neighbors, hoping to create enough opposition to the war to compel President Trump to back off.”
“For the Islamic Republic,” he added, “survival is a victory, even if it is a Pyrrhic one.”
It’s probably a bad strategy. Most of the Sunni world wasn’t thrilled with Shiite-controlled Iran anyway, and after eating Iranian missiles (and burying dead civilians), it’s more likely they’ll join the American war effort than plead for it to end.
Which could lead to the ultimate PR disaster for Iran: The rest of the Arab world, plus Israel and America, united in war for the very first time!
We’re probably about 10 days away from Saudi pilots flying side-by-side with Israeli pilots, working together to defang Iran — which would have a transformational effect across the Middle East, likely culminating in official recognition between the two countries.
And that’s nightmarish for Iran. The purpose, after all, of the Oct. 7 Hamas-led terrorist attacks was to derail Israeli-Saudi diplomatic normalization. But this would be even worse: Iran’s two biggest regional enemies wouldn’t just have diplomatic relationships — they’d actually become war allies!
But even though Iran’s PR strategy in the Gulf is likely to fail, its attempt to influence U.S. public opinion will likely succeed, at least in part. That’s because Iran, the mainstream media, the Democratic Party, and 5% of MAGA share a common enemy: Donald Trump and the U.S.-Israeli alliance.
Related: Rubio Credits Israel for Saving American Lives — and the Media STILL Paints Israel As the Bad Guy!
Iran doesn’t have to do anything to win over the Democrats. Already, 89% of Democrats are opposed to the war. The Dems are firmly in Iran’s pocket; they can be counted on to threaten to withhold war funding, bash Trump as a fascist/dictator, and parrot the most incendiary anti-Israel rhetoric, because the Democratic base already hates Israel with the fiery passion of a thousand suns.
Nearly 8 out of 10 Democrats — 77% — believe Israel is guilty of genocide.
Not so with the GOP. As the National Review noted:
[W]hile one might get the impression from podcasts and social media that there are cracks in traditional Republican support for Israel, that is not at all borne out by the numbers. Among Republicans, 67 percent have a favorable view of Netanyahu (the highest number recorded since Gallup started asking about him in 1999); support for Israel’s war against Hamas is at 71 percent (exactly the same as in the weeks after the October 7 massacres); and despite a spirited debate online, 78 percent backed Israeli action against Iran.
Which is why Iran is laser-focused on wrecking the MAGA coalition by aping the Tucker Carlson/Nick Fuentes talking point that President Trump is Israel’s puppet:
Netanyahu and Trump's war on Iran is wholly unprovoked, illegal, and illegitimate.
— Seyed Abbas Araghchi (@araghchi) February 28, 2026
Trump has turned 'America First' into 'Israel First'—which always means 'America Last'.
Our Powerful Armed Forces are prepared for this day and will teach the aggressors the lesson they deserve pic.twitter.com/xhiWydMyXy
TRUMP HAS BETRAYED “AMERICA FIRST” TO ADOPT “ISRAEL FIRST.”
— Ali Larijani | علی لاریجانی (@alilarijani_ir) March 2, 2026
And when Megyn Kelly recently claimed that U.S. soldiers died “for Israel,” it was music to the mullah’s ears. That’s EXACTLY what they wanted her to tell her audience.
Because, as long as the MAGAverse stands 90% strong with Trump, the Iranians are utterly powerless to split American public opinion.
But if those numbers drop to the 70s or 60s, all bets are off. With the Dems steadfast in their anti-Trump animus, if MAGA support wanes, the pressure to cease bombing and bring our troops home ASAP would reach a fever-pitch.
Immediately afterwards, Iran would declare victory.
And then, with Trump’s political capital drained and depleted, the mullahs would have a safe hand to rebuild, crush dissidents, and cling onto power for another 47 years. That’s because they don’t have to win; they just have to avoid losing.
Trump’s Iran strategy is now clear:
- Win quickly and overwhelmingly.
- Keep MAGA unified.
And honestly? I like the president’s chances much more than the mullah’s.
One Last Thing: 2026 is a critical year for America First. It began with Mayor Mamdani declaring war on “rugged individualism” and will reach a crescendo with the midterm elections. Nothing less than the fate of the America First movement teeters in the balance.
Never before have the political battle lines been so clearly defined. Win or lose, 2026 will transform our country.
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