Some see the glass as half-empty. Others see it as half-full. (Or maybe your glass is too big: I don’t know, I’m not in your kitchen.)
Either way, this is the ultimate good news/bad news story.
The first poll lines up perfectly for the GOP — and just in time for the 2026 midterms: The Democratic Party has reached an ideological tipping-point. The radical left has taken full control of the party’s brand, transforming the Dems from a coalition party of minorities, women, liberals, unions, academics, do-gooders, environmentalists, and moderates into a party of leftists, for leftists, wholly dedicated to leftism.
And now 58% of voters — an all-time high — say the Democratic Party is too liberal.
The other poll is just as eye-opening, but for the opposite reason: Mark Mitchell, the head pollster at Rasmussen — long considered one of the most accurate AND most pro-GOP polling companies — reported that more Americans now favor the Biden years to Trump II.
In fact:
If an election were held TODAY between Trump and Biden, Biden would win.
— Mark Mitchell, Rasmussen Reports (@honestpollster) February 10, 2026
There are a million valid arguments you can make that explain why that's retarded, and I would agree with most of them.
But that doesn't change the fact Biden would win.
On the surface, the results are incongruous: As the Democratic Party ideologically marginalizes itself, you’d expect the GOP’s share of the electoral pie to grow, not shrink.
Yet according to Rasmussen, Joe Biden would now beat Donald Trump by eight points!
Part of the story is demographical: With 45% of Americans now identified as independent, it means just 27% are Democratic. (Republicans are also 27%.)
So just 14% of the population could completely take over either party.
“The Democrats are moving to the left, the far left is gaining power, and there could be some electoral repercussions because what we see right now is voters — the clear majority — say that they are too liberal,” Harry Enten, CNN’s senior data analyst, said.
According to his findings, a third of the party now say that they see themselves as being in line with Mamdani and Sanders’s left-leaning views, with around three in five Democrats describing themselves as somewhat liberal or very liberal.
According to Enten, the findings indicate a complete reversal of the Democratic Party’s base in 1999 and a painful splitting in the party’s demographic structure.
“Back in 1999, 26% of Democrats self-identified as conservative,” he said. “Just 5% said that they were very liberal. It was a smidgen.”
And they’re still growing, too. As the older Dems die off and the younger ones take their place, the party will swing even further to the left:
Enten says that the Democratic Party’s leftward shift could continue into the future, with younger members of the party holding increasingly left-wing views.
“They are a considerable part of the Democratic base at this point,” he said. “And more than that, if you look at Democrats under the age of 35, they are nearly half, nearly half of the Democratic Party.”
“It is something that we are seeing grow within the Democratic Party at this particular point,” he continued. “When we’re talking about 42% of Democrats under the age of 35 identifying as democratic socialists and a third of all Democrats… my goodness gracious.”
Back in 1996, 42% of Americans thought the Dems were “too liberal.” By 2013, after the election of Barack Obama, that number grew to 48%.
It’s now reached a record-high of 58% — and over the last 25 years, the percentage of Dems who identify as “very liberal” has quadrupled.
An all-time high, 58%, of voters say the Dem Party is too liberal.
— (((Harry Enten))) (@ForecasterEnten) February 12, 2026
This comes as 1-in-3 Democrats think of themselves as Democratic Socialists!
And the % of Dems who say they're very liberal has quadrupled since 1999.
NJ-11, NYC mayor & Bernie Sanders are no aberration. pic.twitter.com/J0xuskHgn6
It raises the question: If the Democratic Party is racing to the left and abandoning the middle, why does Rasmussen show Trump losing to Biden by eight points?
And just as importantly, what can Republicans do about it?
There are several possibilities — and chief among them, it could be that Rasmussen simply got it wrong. Despite its pro-GOP reputation, Rasmussen is actually an outlier on this question: Both YouGov and Harvard/Harris polls show a much closer race.
But all three still show Trump losing to Biden.
Three polls in one week all say the same thing. A majority of Americans believe @JoeBiden was a better president than Donald Trump. When even Rasmussen shows it, you know how bad things have gotten for Trump.
— Chris D. Jackson (@ChrisDJackson) February 11, 2026
Democrats should have stood and rallied behind Biden in 2024. Instead,… pic.twitter.com/N9vxdd26LL
“Danger, Will Robinson!”
If you’re a Republican, that’s a helluva warning sign: Three polls in three weeks all reported VERY similar results! And very obviously, if voters head into the 2026 midterms favoring the Biden years over the Trump years, the GOP is headed for a historic drubbing.
The political PR challenge is twofold.
First, it’s important to remember that it’s not just about the left versus the right. In a two-party system, it’s also the incumbent versus the challenger, the alternative versus the status quo, and, today, it’s Donald Trump versus not-Donald Trump.
Conservatives and liberals view the world ideologically, but independents do not. (Hey, if they did, they’d already be Democrats or Republicans!) This is why making an ideological argument to a nonideological voter is an ineffective way to win hearts and minds.
The most striking common thread between the two polls was the number 58. Because 58 isn’t just the number of states in America (at least, according to Barack Obama). And it’s not just the number of Americans who believe the Democratic Party has become too liberal.
It’s also the number of Americans who think Donald Trump has overpromised and underdelivered on the economy.
While the unfavorable Biden comparison is likely to infuriate the president, who disparaged the Democrat throughout the 2024 presidential campaign and has blamed him for many of the problems he has encountered since, it is arguably not the most significant revelation from Rasmussen's polls.
Perhaps of far greater significance is that a huge 58 percent of respondents told the company they do not see the “golden age of America” that Trump promised them materializing.
Only 27 percent said they did indeed believe they were living in an epoch of unparalleled wealth, prosperity and splendor, with the remaining 15 percent unsure. [emphasis added]
This explains the polling incongruities: Yes, the Democratic Party is sprinting to the left. And yes, if 58% of Americans already believe it’s too far to the left, it’s a slam-dunk guarantee that the number will grow — because the party’s leftward migration is still underway.
By 2035, it’ll be owned lock, stock, and barrel by the Democratic Socialists. The future is theirs.
But for nonideological voters, that’s not going to be the determining metric. On Election Day, those voters will pull the lever based on what they see and feel — and not on what they believe.
An ideological argument simply won’t work. If the GOP tries to turn the midterms into a battle of political philosophies, we’ll be swallowed by a big Blue Wave.
It would be the exact wrong strategy at the exact wrong time!
Like Jonathan Swift observed centuries earlier, “You cannot reason a person out of a position he did not reason himself into the first place.” The GOP isn’t struggling because of ideology; it’s struggling because 58% of Americans are dissatisfied with the economy.
The 2026 midterms won’t be about ideas. It’ll be about performance.
And we have 257 days to make ‘em feel the results.
One Last Thing: 2026 is a critical year for America First: It began with Mayor Mamdani declaring war on “rugged individualism” and will reach a crescendo with the midterm elections. Nothing less than the fate of the America First movement teeters in the balance.
Never before have the political battlelines been so clearly defined. Win or lose, 2026 will transform our country.
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