Brazil Goes to the Polls Sunday. Will It Do the 'Right' Thing?

At the beginning of the year, I pointed out that Costa Rica, Peru, Colombia, and Brazil would all have elections in 2026. Could all four countries possibly elect more conservative, United States-aligned presidents, continuing the shift we've seen in the region over the last few years?  

Since then, Costa Rica, which already had such a president in place, chose to continue with his hand-picked successor, Laura Fernández, who promised to be a hardliner on crime. She won with even more of the vote than was predicted. Peru, which has been a hot mess for the last decade at least, chose wisely by electing Keiko Fujimori. 

And the biggest and most important change so far was Colombia choosing Abelardo de la Espriella to be its next president after a four-year experiment in socialism called Gustavo Petro. "El Tigre," as they call their new leader, is already working at dismantling the cartels and armed groups that terrorize the country, restoring relations with the U.S. and Israel, and rebuilding the country's economy.  

And now, it's Brazil's turn. This one will be the toughest battle, but we shouldn't count it out.  Polls show the country's current little dictator, 80-year-old Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, who is running for his fourth term, virtually tied with 45-year-old Flávio Bolsonaro, a lawyer, senator, and son of former president and Donald Trump ally Jair Bolsonaro.  

Polls opened at 8 a.m. Brasília time, and will close at 5 p.m. Around 159 million people are eligible to participate. If no candidate reaches 50% of the vote, there will be a runoff between the top two — almost certain to be Lula and Bolsonaro — on October 25. It's worth noting that the are other candidates, but they are so far behind that they don't really matter, aside from the fact that they're taking votes away from the top two. 

Brazilians aren't just voting for president on Sunday. They're also choosing all 27 governors, the entire 513-seat Chamber of Deputies, 54 of 81 Senate seats, and state legislatures. Voting is compulsory for most adults.  

Here's a Flávio rally from over the weekend:   

Que alegria! Obrigado, Deus! Obrigado, Minas Gerais! Obrigado, Montes Claros! Faltam 2 dias pra tirar o Brasil do cativeiro! O Brasil vai vencer! Presidente Flávio Bolsonaro 22 https://t.co/ecH0fNgYIG

— Flávio Bolsonaro (@FlavioBolsonaro) October 3, 2026

While Flávio has visited Donald Trump in Washington, D.C. in recent months and even took a picture with him in the Oval Office, our president failed to endorse him last week. When asked about it on Friday, Trump said, he's watching the election "very closely." He also called it a very important election in a very important country. In the past, he has said the younger Bolsonaro is a "a smart young man who loves his country, Brazil, very much." 

Some have found this odd, since he endorsed many of the Latin American presidential candidates I mentioned above, and others who were elected last year. But Brazil is not Colombia or Costa Rica. While those countries typically embrace U.S.-alignment, a majority of Brazilian voters do not.  

As a matter of fact, Lula has been campaigning on the issue of sovereignty. For example, when Trump signed the big Venezuelan oil deal in August, Lula took to the microphone and pointed out to his voters that this is what will happen if you vote for Flávio. He likes to use the term "colonize." 

There's also the complicated Lula-Trump-Jair Bolsonaro relationship. In 2022, Trump tried and failed to help Jair stay out of prison. Jair was sentenced to 27 years for supposedly trying to overturn Lula's win at that time.   

Bolsonaro does have the endorsement of other prominent leaders, including Benjamin Netanyahu and Javier Milei. Milei went as far as calling Lula a "convict" and the current government "thieving socialists" over the summer. He's not wrong. It's also possible that Trump will save his endorsement for the runoff if it looks as if it will help. 

That said, relations with the U.S. aren't necessarily what people are thinking about at the polls. Like the rest of the region, crime and security are major factors. The younger Bolsonaro has promised to be a hardliner, and when he was in Washington in May, he asked the Trump administration to classify Brazil’s two most powerful criminal organizations as terrorist groups. It did. Lula opposed the move. Lula's slow-moving economy and cost-of-living issues are also important factors here.  

Given how close the race supposedly is, the amount of corruption we've witnessed there in recent years, and the history between Lula and the Bolsonaro family, it's probably going to get wilder before we have a clear winner, but the process has officially begun on this Sunday. We'll see what happens.   

Editor's Note: Do you enjoy PJ Media's conservative reporting exposing the radical left and woke media? Support our work so we can keep bringing you the truth.

Join PJ Media VIP and use promo code FIGHT to receive 60% off your membership.