Beware the New Headlines About Military Action in Cuba

CBS put out an "exclusive" article on Friday morning with the headline "U.S. military lays groundwork for potential action around Cuba."

That word "potential" is doing a lot of work. Really, the whole headline is doing a lot of work by making it seem like military action in Cuba is almost certain. Other outlets have taken it and run with the idea of military action in Cuba.  At this rate, by October, I suspect "war with Cuba" will be imminent, according to the MSM. 

I'm sorry to report that the real story is much thinner than any of that.  

"U.S. Army Reserve is examining whether it can provide the military's Southern Command with police forces, medical personnel and other support units within the next four months, according to an internal Army message reviewed by CBS News," the article begins.  

Here's more: 

The message does not identify how many troops would be needed in the Southern Command's region, which covers Central and South America, including the Caribbean. It also does not specify where the forces could be sent or what operation they would support. 

The document reviewed by CBS News says Army Reserve headquarters is seeking feedback from subordinate commands on the possible availability of six types of formations that would fall under the authority of U.S. Southern Command. The units would 'possibly [be] needed in 90-120 days,' according to the message, which directs commands to provide feedback to Army Reserve headquarters by Sept. 25. 

The document says the units it's seeking are a combat sustainment support battalion, an engineer battalion, an expeditionary sustainment command, a medical brigade, resuscitative and surgical detachment to provide emergency surgery and trauma care, and a military police brigade for security purposes. There are no deployment orders. There is no mention of Cuba. 

CBS does concede this much in the article, but it adds, "the request is for continued military planning aimed at Cuba, according to multiple U.S. officials who spoke to CBS News under condition of anonymity because they were not authorized to speak publicly."

And buried a little deeper, it adds information from a July report "that the briefings were not an indication that the president or the Pentagon had decided to go forward with an operation."   

This is why you can't just read the headlines. 

The United States has been ramping up its military presence in the SOUTHCOM area of coverage — the Caribbean and Central and South America — for over a year now. It's a major part of Donald Trump and Marco Rubio's national security strategy that was published last December. 

In the months leading up to the capture of Nicolás Maduro, we heard nonstop MSM reports that Trump was about to launch a "war with Venezuela."  That was never going to happen.  And for months, we've heard that the Pentagon is doing extra recon around Cuba and looking at military options, but the Pentagon maintains that it keeps options open for nearly every corner of the globe. That's just smart national defense, not war planning, but that doesn't get clicks, I guess. 

This type of stuff about readiness leaks every other month or so lately and then nothing happens. Perhaps it's done purposely to keep the regime on its toes. Perhaps not. But none of it really signals military "action" as the headline suggests. If you look at the units involved, these are for sustained presence and stability work, not an invasion. 

My guess is that if it does indeed have to do with Cuba, it's more likely plans to prepare for internal collapse. As Trump and Rubio continue to pressure the regime with sanctions and blockades and the regime refuses to fold, the situation for the Cuban people becomes more dire. The entire island just suffered yet another full blackout within the past week. People are hungry. People need medical care. People are tired of living with no water or electricity. This can lead to anything from civil unrest to mass migration, and I am far from a military expert, but this sounds more like preparation for something like that.   

There's also the potential that this isn't meant for Cuba at all. There are other situations in the region that could warrant that sort of attention in the next few months. As I reported earlier, the pressure is on in Venezuela to set a date for elections. We're hearing it from bipartisan members of our own Congress, world leaders in Central and South America, Venezuelan opposition, and the Venezuelan people themselves. Inside the country, protests are on the rise, with people demanding elections so they can get out from under the regime once and for all. 

In Ecuador, we've been on the ground this year, helping to fight the cartels and terrorist groups that have turned that country from one of the most peaceful to one of the most dangerous. Colombia's new government has specifically asked for our help against the armed groups there, many of which have taken over the Colombian-Ecuadorian border. Rubio was just there a couple of weeks ago in both countries, and I have no doubt there is a lot of action planned there in the not too distant future to help those governments take back these regions and make our entire hemisphere safer and more secure.  

I'm not saying there is no chance we'll ever see military action in Cuba. Nothing is off the table.   

The memo is compatible with the planning for the pressure campaign the Trump administration has launched against Cuba, but it's also compatible with any of these scenarios. The best thing we can do is keep watching Trump, Rubio, and the Pentagon for concrete information, not bet on anonymously sourced information from the MSM.  

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