Athletes betting for or against themselves and their teammates is something that's been going on for decades. We regularly see insider trading in the finance, corporate, and political worlds. But active duty military members betting via prediction markets on matters of national security is kind of new.
In 2025, the prediction marketplace Polymarket began allowing people to enter "binary event contracts related to whether certain events involving Venezuela and/or [Nicolás] Maduro would, or would not, occur," according to the Department of Justice (DOJ).
A 38-year-old from Fayetteville, N.C. named Gannon Ken Van Dyke won almost $410,000 on all of these Maduro- and Venezuela-related bets. The problem? He's a member of the United States Army who was involved in the planning of the capture of Maduro.
Here is the bet that U.S. Army soldier Gannon Ken Van Dyke was charged with placing to win $409,882 👇 pic.twitter.com/r4PGTfLjlo
— Insider Paper (@TheInsiderPaper) April 24, 2026
According to the DOJ, he is now charged with "unlawful use of confidential government information for personal gain, theft of nonpublic government information, commodities fraud, wire fraud, and making an unlawful monetary transaction." He faces up to 60 years in prison, and prosecutors are seizing his winnings.
Here's more:
The charges arise from an alleged scheme in which Van Dyke used sensitive classified information to make wagers on Polymarket, a prediction marketplace. As alleged in the indictment, Van Dyke participated in the planning and execution of the U.S. military operation to capture Nicolás Maduro, called 'Operation Absolute Resolve,' and Van Dyke used his access to classified information about that operation to personally profit. Van Dyke will be presented today before U.S. Magistrate Judge Brian S. Meyers in the Eastern District of North Carolina. The case has been assigned to U.S. District Judge Margaret M. Garnett in the Southern District of New York.
"Our men and women in uniform are trusted with classified information in order to accomplish their mission as safely and effectively as possible, and are prohibited from using this highly sensitive information for personal financial gain," Acting Attorney General Todd Blanche said. "Widespread access to prediction markets is a relatively new phenomenon, but federal laws protecting national security information fully apply."
"Today’s announcement makes clear no one is above the law, and this FBI will do whatever it takes to defend the homeland and safeguard our nation’s secrets," added FBI Director Kash Patel. "Any clearance holders thinking of cashing in their access and knowledge for personal gain will be held accountable."
Van Dyke, who is currently stationed at Fort Bragg, "signed nondisclosure agreements in which he promised to 'never divulge, publish, or reveal by writing, words, conduct, or otherwise...any classified or sensitive information' relating to military operations," the DOJ says. It added, "Starting around Dec. 8, 2025, and continuing through at least Jan. 6, Van Dyke was involved in the planning and execution of Operation Absolute Resolve, a military operation to capture Maduro, and had access to sensitive, nonpublic, classified information about that operation."
Here's more:
In total, Van Dyke made approximately 13 bets from Dec. 27, 2025, through the evening of Jan. 26. Those bets all took the 'YES' position on 'U.S. Forces in Venezuela...by January 31, 2026'; 'Maduro out by... January 31, 2026'; 'Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by...January 31,'; or 'Trump invokes War Powers against Venezuela by...January 31.' Van Dyke bet a total of approximately $33,034 on those outcomes while in possession of classified nonpublic information about Operation Absolute Resolve.
In the predawn hours of Jan. 3, the U.S. apprehended Maduro and his wife at a residence in Caracas, Venezuela, and hours later the President of the United States announced the successful operation. Following the President’s public announcement, Polymarket resolved several Maduro- and Venezuela-related contracts to 'YES,' including the markets 'Maduro out by... January 31, 2026,' and 'US forces in Venezuela by...January 31, 2026.' As a result, Van Dyke won his wagers on those contracts. In total, Van Dyke allegedly profited approximately $409,881.
Upon winning, Van Dyke "sent most of his proceeds to a foreign cryptocurrency vault before depositing them into a newly created online brokerage account." He also took steps to conceal his identity. He also asked Polymarket to delete his account, claiming he'd lost access to the email associated with it on January 6. The same day, he "changed the email registered to his cryptocurrency exchange account to an email address that was not subscribed to in his name, and which he had created on or about Dec. 14, 2025."
Rep. Anna Paulina Luna has already called for him to be pardoned, claiming this is not "justice" if the DOJ doesn't also go after members of Congress for insider trading.
Maybe not a popular take but I am calling for this guy to be pardoned. Unless the DOJ plans on going after all the crooks in congress currently insider trading, this is simply skewed justice. There is no “justice” when guys like this get the book thrown at him yet members are… https://t.co/b5hFXY3Ryp
— Rep. Anna Paulina Luna (@RepLuna) April 23, 2026
While this is a unique situation, perhaps the first of its kind in the United States, a reservist in the Israeli Air Force was indicted earlier this year "on severe security offenses, as well as bribery and obstruction of justice, on suspicion of having bet on the timing of Israel’s opening strikes that kicked off the 12-day war in June 2025." The person and their accomplice allegedly won $162,663 on Polymarket.
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