Reuters is reporting that the Iranian government is dragging its heels in making a deal to end the war and reopen the Strait of Hormuz. They are doing it deliberately to prevent Donald Trump from getting any political benefit from ending the war and the plummeting oil prices that would surely follow.
"Iran is preparing for renewed Israeli and U.S. attacks, not for a deal with America to end the war," one of the three officials who spoke with Reuters said. "The clerical establishment is determined not to give Trump a political victory."
The U.S. blockade of Iranian ports is taking a huge toll on the Iranian economy. "Annual inflation hit 73.6% in September, according to the Statistical Center of Iran, and the rial currency has fallen nearly 35% against the dollar since Washington reapplied its naval blockade in July," Reuters reports. Inflation is closer to 90%, according to Trading Economics, and has more than doubled in the last year.
No oil is leaving the country, Reuters reports. That means no hard currency and virtually no national income.
As for an attack on Iran by the U.S., Trump has promised not to attack Iran before the election. Will Trump keep that promise? It would be fairly easy to engineer a scenario where Iran is goaded into attacking the U.S., leaving Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu free to attack.
Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth met with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in Israel on Monday, an unannounced visit just eight days before the Israeli election and 15 days before the U.S. midterms.
A deal offered by Iran is on the table, referred to as the "seven-day plan" that would see the Strait of Hormuz fully opened in seven days as long as the U.S. lifted the blockade.
Reuters:
Iran’s proposal, conveyed through Qatari mediators, offered to reopen the strait within seven days, albeit under Iranian control, provided that Washington lifted its maritime blockade, eased restrictions on Iranian oil exports, released frozen assets and ended hostilities on all fronts.
Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi said on Sunday that the offer remained on the table, with messages being exchanged through mediators.
Tehran's view that Washington cannot be trusted to commit to diplomacy stems from the attacks on Iran that have derailed previous negotiations, one Iranian official said.
In June 2025, an Israeli attack wrecked plans for a sixth round of US-Iran nuclear talks in Oman. And last February, the US and Israel launched their war just after another round of talks ended, with further technical discussions scheduled.
Maintaining a state somewhere between war and peace through the US midterms allows Iran to sustain pressure on Washington while reiterating its commitment to diplomacy.
"But the fundamental issue is that Tehran believes that Trump is interested in regime change... and following Israeli Prime Minister (Benjamin) Netanyahu’s policy of seeking to bring down Iran’s ruling establishment," said Alex Vatanka, director of the Iran program at the Middle East Institute in Washington. Vatanka believes the clerical establishment wants to hurt Trump politically before the midterms, just as the clerical establishment wanted to hurt Jimmy Carter before the 1980 presidential election.
Iranian analyst Saeed Leylaz believes the U.S. should get used to the idea of a near-state of war with Iran even after Trump is out of office.
“Reaching a sustainable deal with the US, even after the Trump administration, is no longer possible because of the deepened distrust,” Leylaz said. "Nothing will go back to the pre-war status quo."
If that's the case, Trump has nothing to lose in continuing to pressure Iran by bombing infrastructure and blockading the ports. If the Iranians are not going to even try to make a deal, they need to be shown the cost of continued war with the U.S.