By all rights, Democrats should be blowing Republicans out of the water in these midterm elections. Donald Trump's approval numbers are underwater, and on issues, Democrats hold an advantage on which party is better able to handle the economy. The Iran War is becoming more unpopular by the week, and inflation is beginning to tick up as a result.
Republicans are trusted far more on immigration, but in a true, bitter irony, Trump has slowed the illegal wave at the border to a trickle, making it far less of an issue.
So why aren't the Democrats winning big?
Ron Brownstein, a veteran political reporter, is noticing it too.
Trump’s job approval rating has plummeted below the level that triggered midterm wave elections vs Clinton 94, W. Bush in 2006, Obama in 2010 & Trump himself in 2018. And yet most surveys do not show Dems establishing a clear advantage in the key races that will decide control. https://t.co/MYxrsDilxy
— Ronald Brownstein (@RonBrownstein) July 19, 2026
In Trump I, Ds won ~90% of voters who disapproved of him in most House/Senate races. In polls now, they usually win far fewer of them. That's the biggest yellow light for Ds in 26. But can Rs really hold so many more voters down on Trump thru Nov? My take https://t.co/9lmafPzfCc
— Ronald Brownstein (@RonBrownstein) July 19, 2026
This gentleman has the answer for Brownstein and any Democrat who actually wants to win in November (LANGUAGE WARNING):
It’s because for some of us who are tired of the Trump chaos can’t vote for the dems when they are bat shit freaks. I can not ever vote for the loony dem state candidate in Texas. Waaayyy to many bad policy beliefs. Not moderate at all. So I’m voting for the alternative who has…
— Huckleberrycrew5 (@AnneDAngelo5) July 19, 2026
Voters may not love Republicans. They may not like what's happening in the economy, in Iran, and with inflation. They may not like Trump very much. But there's one reason that, against all odds, Republicans could very well end up holding their slim majority in the House and even increase their margin in the Senate.
Voters hate Democrats more.
In an election where all of the issues are breaking the Democrats' way, Republicans have two huge issues they can throw at Democrats that may very well scare enough voters to give the GOP an advantage.
The first is a gift from the Democrats: their acquiescence in an attempted coup of their party by the Democratic Socialists of America (DSA). Republicans will call them "communists." The DSA doesn't care what you call them as long as you vote for them.
The Democrats are gambling, like all mainstream parties in history faced with a radical left surge, that once the kooks help the rest of them get elected, they will control them, tame them, and channel their energy into productive, constitutional avenues.
Good luck with that because it worked so well in Russia and Germany in the 20th century.
Meanwhile, Republicans are going old school with a 1950s-era, genuine anti-communist "Red Scare" campaign.
“We’re fighting right now in Congress over whether we’re going to maintain our status as a constitutional republic or we’re going to trade that in, dismantle the foundations, and go down this dark road of death to communism,” Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) said in a press conference at the Republican National Committee.
“These crazy little mini-Mamdanis who are popping up all around the country, they are a danger to you and your family.”
House Majority Leader Steve Scalise (R-La.) drew attention to the Democratic Party’s ideological battle in those primaries, with the insurgent left-wing candidates defeating those favored by House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-N.Y.).
He was clear that Republicans saw those leftist candidates as useful to campaign against.
“In swing districts, it draws an incredibly sharp contrast between our incumbent Republicans who are working to make life more affordable for working families against these communists who want to literally defund the police,” Scalise said.
He was referencing the Democratic Socialists of America (DSA) platform, which calls for “steps towards fully abolishing the police and prison system which protects the rich and jails the poor” and “amnesty for all immigrants regardless of status.”
I really hope they bring back Doo-wop and Elvis (yes, he's still alive). While they're at it, making my crew cut popular again would be fine with me.
Democrats are doing all the heavy lifting for Republicans. The GOP doesn't have to demonize the Democrats when the donks are doing a darn fine job of it on their own.
At some point Dems are going to have to grapple with the reality that in the face of all of Trump and Republicans’ manifest horribleness and incompetence, people aren’t rushing toward the Democrats. If you think the DSA stuff is helping, you’ve never talked to a swing voter. https://t.co/9LgLHkwnYf
— Sarah Longwell (@SarahLongwell25) July 19, 2026
The trick for Republicans will be to find a way to get their supporters to the polls. Right now, the enthusiasm gap is concerning, but why isn't it larger, asks one political science professor.
“I don't think that things are looking very good for Republicans,” said Rob Alexander, a political science professor at Bowling Green. “The enthusiasm gap that we’re seeing is unsurprising. Maybe the most surprising thing is that it's not higher in favor of Democrats.”
The professor also noted what the GOP isn't saying in the campaign.
“It's just all negative, negative, negative. There's very little ‘we're building the American dream, and things are better.’ It’s more ‘those guys are bad,’” Alexander said. “It seems to be the tactic that we’re settling into as we move on, and it’s going to be a really ugly fall throughout the country.”
When winning ugly is all you've got, run with it.
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