After Four Years of War, Ukraine Has Passed the Point of No Return

Russia has suffered between one million and 1.26 million dead, wounded, and missing, with 325,000 dead.  Ukraine has lost between 500,000 and 600,000 soldiers, including at least 55,000 dead and probably many more.

The Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) says this is a "historic loss" that represents the highest number of casualties for a major power since World War II. The Rand Corporation estimates Ukraine's losses amount to a catastrophic decline in the male working-age population. Not only have there been dead, but about 10% of draft-age Ukrainians have fled to the West (and some to the East to Russia) rather than fight. To keep factories running, the Ukrainian government has granted deferments for draft calls to workers in several industries.

The state has expanded the powers of the Territorial Recruitment Centers (TCC). They are now authorized to conduct checks in public places—including bars, restaurants, and public transport—and may conscript individuals on the spot if they fail to provide valid registration or exemption documents.

Meanwhile, soldiers who enlisted in 2022 are still fighting, still in the Donbas meatgrinder where the front lines have barely moved in four years.

Russia has been looking to establish a "buffer zone" in Eastern Ukraine since its main offensives in the winter of 2022. They undertook another major offensive this winter, capturing about 160 square miles since the first of the year. Now, Ukraine has begun to push back and, step by step, recapture the ground they lost.

This is reminiscent of World War I. Despite some success elsewhere in the East (Russia has captured about 20% of Ukrainian pre-war territory), their stated war aims remain elusive, and captured territory is hard to win and even harder to hang on to.

The war has cost Russia far more than lives lost and national treasure wasted. In a 2024 report for the Atlantic Council, Professor Harley Balzer wrote of Russia's declining demographics and its potential to relegate Russia to secondary power status.

“United Nations scenarios project Russia's population in 2100 to be between 74 million and 112 million compared with the current 146 million. The most recent UN projections are for the world's population to decline by about 20 percent by 2100. The estimate for Russia is a decline of 25 to 50 percent.”

That's a catastrophe that will be hard to avoid.

More from the Rand Report.

The war is already having a huge impact on the Russian labor market. Shortages abound. Russia's labor minister is reported to have told Putin last year that Russia will have a shortage of 2.4 million workers by 2030. Others put the number higher. Young men can now make much more by signing up for the military (with substantial bonuses) than they can working in civilian jobs in their home oblasts. Not surprisingly, businesses now have to pay higher salaries, which in turn drives up costs and inflation (officially set at 6 to 7 percent in September 2025 but probably higher). Russia used to rely on migrant labor from Central Asia, but that has diminished in the wake of the security crackdown after the 2024 attack on the Crocus City Hall theater by Tajik terrorists. Now Russia is turning to migrant labor from India and Sri Lanka.

This makes Putin's stubbornness to end the war understandable. Russia needs warm bodies and doesn't have much time to get them.  

With a shrinking economy, failing to employ soldiers coming home from the front has become a massive social problem.

Russian state media reported in January that there were currently about 250,000 unemployed veterans of the “special military operation” who had returned to Russia from Ukraine. Almost as soon as the news was published, the story disappeared, undoubtedly to prevent raising public anxiety. Many Russians remember the difficult return of Soviet-era war veterans from Afghanistan, which involved fewer people. Crime, drug use, and domestic instability surged. Some of those soldiers contributed to the growth of organized crime.

Putin can't quit fighting in Ukraine because post-war problems would be significantly more difficult to address than the problems he's facing now. Russia can absorb a few million casualties. They lost 20 million citizens in World War II, with a significantly smaller population. 

Despite the casualties, the economic dislocation, and the civil liberties crackdowns, a majority of Russians still support the war and would back escalation if peace talks fail.

Russia Matters:

The Levada Center’s latest polling on Ukraine indicates a notable hardening of the Russian public’s attitude toward the war in Ukraine. While the poll indicates support for immediate peace talks remained higher than support for continued fighting, if peace talks fail, the balance could shift toward greater acceptance of escalation, according to the center’s January 2026 poll. At the same time, while confident in Russia’s victory, the majority of Russians believe the war will last another six months or more, according to the poll. Together, these trends point to possible further normalization of a long war and reduced public appetite for compromise in Russia. 

Putin is still on solid ground with the Russian people.

Interestingly, perhaps, for the first time since the start of the conflict, the Levada Center asked its respondents how Russia should act if achieving peace is not yet possible: Should it make additional concessions or intensify attacks? In response, 5% said Russia should definitely make additional concessions and 16% said it should probably do so, while 28% favored probably increasing attacks and 31% favored definitely increasing them; 20% were unable to answer. Overall, a clear plurality favors escalation in such a scenario: 59% believe failure to achieve peace should be met with greater use of force, compared with 21% who advocate concessions.

Morale in Ukraine is flagging, although a healthy percentage of the population still expresses the desire to resist. Mostly, Ukrainians (like Russians) want peace. 

A January 2026 survey by the Kyiv International Institute of Sociology (KIIS) found that 65% of Ukrainians are ready to endure the war for "as long as necessary." This figure has remained remarkably stable, actually showing a slight increase from 62% in late 2025.

President Volodymyr Zelensky isn't on as solid political ground as Putin, due to several scandals involving close associates, but since he canceled elections (with the approval of opposition parties) in 2024, he won't have to face the voters to test his popularity.

The peace talks in Geneva aren't going anywhere. Putin insists on being given territory in Eastern Ukraine, which he hasn't conquered, and Zelensky is still insisting on a return of all Ukrainian territory, including Crimea, which was conquered in 2014.

The two sides are nowhere near exhausted enough to end this war. It will continue as long as Putin draws breath, and who knows how long that will be.