Trump's military options for an attack on Iran may be expansive, having deployed a massive armada to the region.
He may order a limited strike as an object lesson in order to get Iran to negotiate seriously. He may attack Kharg Island and other oil infrastructure to target Iran's failing economy, cause its collapse, and create chaos.
Or he may go for the whole enchilada and try to take down the government. This would involve a combination of decapitation strikes at the Iranian leadership and heavy blows delivered against the security forces, especially the Revolutionary Guards.
It's possible that if Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei is killed, the resulting quarrels over a successor by the Leader's inner circle could lead to a Revolutionary Guards coup. If that were to happen, a more secular but equally oppressive government would arise.
The biggest problem facing the opposition to the government is a total lack of unity. That, and some of the more prominent opposition figures live outside Iran, many having left decades ago.
One of those opposition personalities living abroad is Masih Alinejad. She was forced to flee Iran, barely escaping arrest in 2009 after the protests against a rigged presidential election, later moving to the U.S. She has been the target of two assassination attempts on American soil as the regime has tried to silence her.
On Feb. 17, Alinejad spoke at the United Nations, giving what UN Watch calls "one of the most powerful speeches ever delivered at the United Nations."
This is one of the most powerful speeches ever delivered at the United Nations: https://t.co/LY3sZiIIse
— UN Watch (@UNWatch) February 18, 2026
Iranian human rights activist @AlinejadMasih slams EU politicans at the Geneva Summit in the UN.
— Oli London (@OliLondonTV) February 18, 2026
“I cannot believe how come the leaders of European countries do not feel guilty by shaking the hand of those Islamic Republic officials full of blood. Shame on you!” pic.twitter.com/3fW9YViL1p
Alinejad is not angling for a role in any new Iranian government. Her purpose is to shine a light in the dark places in Iran and inspire the West to help. Her pleas have fallen on deaf ears in Europe; nor has her advocacy for a democratic Iran inspired the opposition, both in and outside of Iran, to unite to take down the Khamenei regime.
“If Trump goes for such action—killing Khamenei and top commanders—the problem is, what happens next?,” asks a former Iranian official, Mohsen Sazegara, who has become an activist living in the U.S. “Iran may become a failed state.”
"Iranian opposition to the Islamic Republic is politically fractured, disorganized and physically divided between those at home and abroad," reports the Wall Street Journal. "If the U.S. opts to knock out the top leaders in the hope that more malleable figures rise to replace them, there is no guarantee that they will be any more moderate than Khamenei."
Who might step forward?
Arab and European officials say that removing the 86-year-old Khamenei won’t necessarily result in more moderate figures taking over the leadership of the Islamic Republic, let alone topple it. They say the regime could adapt and survive, perhaps through conservative cleric Ali Asghar Hejazi, Khamenei’s current envoy to the security apparatus, and Mohammad-Mahdi Mirbagheri, the spiritual leader of an ultraradical faction rejecting any democratization.
Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf, a former Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps commander who is now the speaker of Iran’s parliament, might lead an even more hard-line government if Khamenei is killed, said Saeid Golkar, associate professor at the University of Tennessee at Chattanooga and an expert on Iran’s security services.
Moderate figures already are being sidelined. Several members of a reformist movement pushing for change within the existing system have been detained after criticizing the recent crackdown.
The most prominent opposition name is Reza Pahlavi, the exiled son of the deposed shah. He has adopted a moderate, pro-Western persona, and recently stepped forward, calling on Iranians on Jan. 8 to take to the streets to protest. More than a million people joined the protests, and security forces shot dead more than 30,000 of them.
Pahlavi's standing among the numerous opposition groups is mixed. He has positioned himself as a possible interim leader, but this has garnered little interest inside Iran. His dream is to emulate Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini, fly back to Iran, and take over by popular acclaim. That's not going to happen, and his status is too controversial to make him a viable option.
In chaotic times, look for leadership among those with the guns. And when several groups are armed, a civil war will break out. I believe that to be the most likely scenario if Trump and Netanyahu succeed in taking out the Iranian leadership.
