There's a disturbing article in Axios about Republican turnout in the 20 special elections held at the state level this year, which shows Democrats outperforming Kamala Harris by a double-digit margin.
Not only does this reveal a growing "enthusiasm gap," but GOP voters are simply not showing up. GOP turnout in these districts hit rock bottom.
"Democrats have outperformed former Vice President Harris' 2024 numbers by an average of 10.5 percentage points in the 20 state legislative districts that've held special elections this year," Axios reports. "And in 2025, in the 67 state House and Senate races, Democrats outperformed Harris by 13.9%."
No, I'm not running around the barnyard saying, "The sky is falling." The GOP is not doomed. But the rosy picture painted in early 2025, that Republicans would easily hold the Senate and possibly increase their margin in the House, has fallen by the wayside.
"A year ago, I would have told you we were almost guaranteed to win the Senate," one GOP operative who's reviewed internal polling told Axios. "Today, I would have to tell you it's far less certain.
Senate races in Iowa, Ohio, and Alaska have become competitive after Democrats successfully recruited strong candidates to run against GOP incumbents.
Sen. Tim Scott (R-S.C.) chairs the GOP National Republican Senatorial Campaign Committee (NRSC) and he delivered some sobering news to his colleagues during a closed-door meeting two weeks ago.
He told senators that private polling revealed the Senate map is expanding and thaqt even some "safe" incumbents may be in for a fight. This means that, at least, the party is going to have to devote more resources to races they didn't think they'd have to worry about.
Schumer got former Sen. Sherrod Brown to run again in Ohio, and former Rep. Mary Peltola to run in Alaska. Ohio Sen. Jon Husted and Alaska Sen. Dan Sullivan are the GOP incumbents.
Even if Democrats fail to win either race, Republicans now will need to spend potentially tens of millions to defend those seats.
If incumbent Texas Sen. John Cornyn loses the upcoming GOP primary to state Attorney General Ken Paxton, polls suggest it could open the door to a Democrat winning Cornyn's seat in November.
The NRSC penned a memo this week arguing that Cornyn is "the only Republican candidate" who can "reliably win a general election matchup" against either Democratic state Rep. James Talarico or U.S. Rep Jasmine Crockett (D). (Republicans might get some help — the Democratic primary has gone harshly negative recently.)
Even if Paxton wins in November, many Republicans warn, the party will have to unexpectedly spend tens of millions of dollars more than if Cornyn is the nominee.
Republicans are not in danger in Texas. Every two years, Democrats get excited about "flipping Texas blue" and end up in the same GOP slaughterhouse in November. There would have to be a paradigm shift for Republicans to lose that Senate race. Even Paxton's legal troubles probably aren't enough to defeat him.
In fact, all of this "bad news" for Republicans is political churn. Off-year elections mean very little, even if the opposition party outperforms its national candidate from a recent election. Kamala Harris was the second-weakest candidate in major party history, trailing only Hillary Clinton. A pie-eyed prostitute would outperform Harris on most ballots.
As for turnout, most Republicans dismiss these concerns.
Some Republicans caution against reading too much into state and local elections, arguing they often don't reflect national trends.
They note that Trump's cash-flush political operation didn't aggressively work to turn out the president's supporters in any of the recent elections — something it'll do in U.S. House and Senate elections this November.
They also point out that Trump plans to hit the trail aggressively, which they believe will help to turn out his supporters.
"Let's not pretend a couple of low-turnout special elections suddenly signal a political earthquake," said Mason Di Palma, communications director for the Republican State Leadership Committee.
"They are unique, low-turnout contests driven by highly localized factors."
All of that is true. Also true is that the midterm elections were always going to be close. The Senate may yet turn sharply in favor of the GOP, but, as expected, the competitive races will remain so.
The new year promises to be one of the most pivotal in recent history. Midterm elections will determine if we continue to move forward or slide back into lawfare, impeachments, and the toleration of fraud.
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