Iran is refusing to negotiate limits to its ballistic missile program because it is an integral part of Iran's defense strategy, and it would take the Iranians months to develop a new one.
They also have a bridge over the Chicago River that they can sell you for a song.
Iranian Defense Council Secretary Ali Shamkhani told Al Jazeera on Friday that the missile program was a "firmly established" element of Iran's defense strategy, and that Iran’s missile capabilities are therefore included within Iran’s “defense red lines” and not subject to negotiation.
Iran has also refused to engage on eliminating its nuclear program. It's clear that Tehran had no intention of negotiating in good faith. The Iranians are stalling for time to see if U.S. allies in the region can convince Donald Trump not to go to war.
It's their only hope of forestalling what is shaping up to be the most significant military operation since Operation Iraqi Freedom in 2003.
Trump has given the Iranians a month to reach a deal.
US President Donald Trump on Thursday warned that Tehran will face a "very traumatic" outcome if no deal is reached. When asked about a deadline, he said "I guess over the next month". pic.twitter.com/XVvLIu1CKX
— Iran International English (@IranIntl_En) February 12, 2026
Not coincidentally, it will be a month before the largest aircraft carrier in the world, the USS Gerald R. Ford, can make its way from the Caribbean, where it had been supporting operations earlier this year, to the Middle East, where it will join the USS Abraham Lincoln currently in the Arabian Sea.
This armada will include two aircraft carriers capable of deploying 150-160 combat aircraft, at least two guided-missile cruisers, four or five destroyers, and attack submarines.
This is a force built for regime change. And Iran knows it.
Speaking to troops at Fort Bragg in North Carolina on Friday, Trump said, "Sometimes you have to have fear. That's the only thing that really will get the situation taken care of."
"President Trump has all options on the table with regard to Iran," said Anna Kelly, White House spokesperson.
"He listens to a variety of perspectives on any given issue, but makes the final decision based on what is best for our country and national security," she said.
June's "Midnight Hammer" operation was essentially a one-off U.S. attack, with stealth bombers flying from the United States to strike Iranian nuclear facilities. Iran staged a very limited retaliatory strike on a U.S. base in Qatar.
The planning underway this time is more complex, the officials said.
In a sustained campaign, the U.S. military could hit Iranian state and security facilities, not just nuclear infrastructure, one of the officials said. The official declined to provide specific details.
Experts say the risks to U.S. forces would be far greater in such an operation against Iran, which boasts a formidable arsenal of missiles. Retaliatory Iranian strikes also increase the risk of a regional conflict.The same official said the United States fully expected Iran to retaliate, leading to back-and-forth strikes and reprisals over a period of time.
The White House and Pentagon did not respond to questions about the risks of retaliation or regional conflict.
If the U.S. strikes Iran, a near-certainty at this point, Iran will try its best to involve Israel. But the firepower of that armada will deter any other state in the region from joining Iran's fight for regime survival.
Trump's most difficult task, if he gets the chance, will be shaping the government of postwar Iran. However, if theocracy falls, some kind of military dictatorship set up by the Revolutionary Guards would be the most logical replacement for the mullahs. They wouldn't be any friendlier to the U.S. or Israel.
But that wouldn't put us back at square one. A chastened Iran, a nearly defenseless Iran, and a more realistic, less ideological Iran would probably be easier to negotiate with.
It wouldn't be ideal, but it would be a lot better than what we're dealing with now.
