Despite the polls showing a rough national environment for the GOP heading into the 2026 midterms, I've been bullish about Republicans' chances for months. And guess what? The map is proving me right. Democrats need to flip several seats to reclaim the Senate majority, and they were counting on Texas as one of their marquee pickups. The problem is that nobody actually believes Texas State Rep. James Talarico (D-50th District) is the guy to pull it off. He's the best they've got, and even Democrats seem unconvinced.

But that’s not even what I’m really here to talk about.

The thing is, races that should have been easy wins for Democrats are actually competitive, and that tells you everything you need to know about the state of their party.

In Michigan, Democrat primary voters nominated Abdul El-Sayed, an antisemitic democratic socialist, in a state Democrats need to carry comfortably. It proved that the socialist takeover of the Democrat Party isn't confined to safe, deep-blue districts anymore.

In Minnesota, Republican Michele Tafoya is running neck and neck with radical leftist Minnesota Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan for a Senate seat that Democrats assumed was safely theirs. Minnesota hasn't sent a Republican to the Senate since 2002, and Democrats now have to spend real money to defend the seat.

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News Topics 2026 ELECTIONS | DEMOCRAT PARTY | NEW HAMPSHIRE | REPUBLICAN PARTY | SENATE

ICYMI: James Talarico Shouldn’t Be Allowed Near Children

But there’s also another race that should really worry Democrats: New Hampshire, a state that hasn't voted Republican for president since 2000 and has trended Democrat for roughly two decades since going blue on Election Day 2004.

A recent poll from the University of New Hampshire and 7NEWS shows former Sen. John E. Sununu (R-N.H.) leading Rep. Chris Pappas (D-N.H.) 45% to 43% in a hypothetical matchup for the Senate seat Sen. Jeanne Shaheen (D-N.H.) is vacating. Three months ago, that same poll had Pappas ahead by three points.

That's a five-point swing toward the Republican in a single summer. Dismiss it as one poll all you want, but the Cook Political Report just moved the race from "Lean Democrat" to "Toss Up."

National Republican Senatorial Committee Regional Press Secretary Samantha Cantrell isn't being shy about why: "Granite Staters are flocking to John Sununu because they know that Chris Pappas is nothing more than a political insider who will put Washington over New Hampshire every time," she said.

If the national environment were really as brutal for Republicans as the pundits keep insisting, none of this would be happening. New Hampshire wouldn't be a toss-up. Minnesota would have been written off as a Democrat gimme, and Michigan wouldn't be a dogfight.