The gospel reading today for the 14th Week in Ordinary time couldn’t be more apropos or tug harder on the heart strings. “While Jesus was speaking, an official came forward, knelt down before him, and said, 'My daughter has just died. But come, lay your hand on her, and she will live.'"
Seeing pictures of the young girls whose lives were cut short in the Guadalupe River flooding at Camp Mystic in Kerr County, Texas, brings home the truth: You know not the day nor the hour. It also highlights the importance of getting timely weather forecasts.
One of the best weathermen in the country is James Spann at ABC 33/40 in Birmingham, Ala. He pinpoints the streets tornadoes are heading to, even texting his wife while on air to get into the storm shelter before a tornado came down his own street and damaged his property.
He said of the Texas flooding, “One takeaway is the importance of having a NOAA Weather Radio at every home, business, and any place where there are a large number of people gathered (like a camp on a river). I would imagine cell service is very spotty along the Guadalupe, where the camps were located. NWR (National Weather Service) does not use cell service and will wake you up. The alert is very loud and can't be missed.”
Flash floods are easy to underestimate if you don’t understand them. I recall being in a storm as a young doctor next to me was texting. I forcefully told him to text later, move out now. In the end, nine cars on his street were destroyed. One of the more interesting group experiences is to be in the stands at a sporting event when everyone’s cell phone simultaneously goes off with a tornado warning.
In his social media post on the Texas flood, Spann commented on the danger of warning fatigue for minor events and false alarms. This is the downside of “an abundance of caution” and the 100% risk-averse philosophy. It dulls the desire for the public to act now. “Social scientists will do much research on this in coming months and years," Spann said. "In my opinion, one of the primary problems is the high number of false alarms; flash flood warnings that are issued with only minor flooding involved. This is also a problem with tornadoes in many parts of the country. I am very thankful that locally, NWS Birmingham leads the nation in lowering the false alarm ratio.”
Spann outlines the warning process as it unfolded in Texas:
- A flash flood watch was issued for Kerr County at 12:41 a.m. CT (just after midnight Thursday night). The watch mentioned isolated rain amounts of 10 inches and stated, "Excessive runoff may result in flooding of rivers, creeks, streams, and other low-lying and flood-prone locations. Creeks and streams may rise out of their banks." This followed a flash flood watch that was issued earlier, on Thursday afternoon.
- A flash flood warning was issued at 1:14 a.m. CT for Kerr County, which mentioned "life-threatening flash flooding of creeks, streams, and rivers".
- A flash flood "emergency" was issued at 5:34 a.m. CT for Kerr County and the Guadalupe River.
- NWS Austin/San Antonio had five on staff during the event; normally, two would be on duty. Extra staffing was planned before the event started.
- This type of flash flooding on the Guadalupe River is nothing new. Similar events happened in 1998, 1987, 1978, 1935, and 1921. This year's event was related to deep moisture from a tropical system (Barry) that made landfall near Tampico, Tamaulipas, Mexico, on June 29.
Related: Texas Floods: More Than 60 Dead, Digital Ghouls Smirk
What makes all this so personal are the “I love you” texts some girls were able to send to parents and grandparents. Such a paradox. On the one hand, getting the text you never want to get. Yes, it is true, no call you get at 3 a.m. is ever a good one. And yet there is peace in having that last word of affection, love, and remembrance by a dear loved one.
Keep all these families in your prayers. They will need them. In the midst of all the shock, faith is an unfailing rock to cling to.