For years, Democrats have treated Jewish voters as a permanent part of their coalition, a bloc so reliable the party never felt it had to earn it. Well, guess what? After embracing the antisemitic wing of the party, cracks are showing up in exactly the races Democrats can least afford to lose.
I recently wrote about how the Democrat Party is bleeding Jewish support as its far-left wing seizes control and drags the party toward antisemitism and open sympathy for Palestinians, Hamas, and Hezbollah. It will likely cost Democrats dearly in November. Kamala Harris won about 71% of the Jewish vote in 2024, making Jewish voters one of the most dependable parts of the Democrat base, but a growing share of them are clearly troubled by the party’s direction, and some are doing something they've never done before.
Take Michigan's Senate race. According to New York Times reporter Jeremy Peters, a Michigan native who grew up near Democrat nominee Abdul El-Sayed's hometown, lifelong Jewish Democrats in the Detroit suburbs are voting Republican for the first time. Peters argued the shift hurts El-Sayed and points to a midterm that falls short of the blue wave Democrats rode in 2018.
"That's a big deal," Peters told MS NOW's Morning Joe. "I don't know of any other marquee race in the country right now where the Republican candidate is converting Democrats."
Peters found it remarkable that Democrats are worried enough about El-Sayed to back former Rep. Mike Rogers (R-Mich.), especially in an environment he described as tough for the president.
"I mean, given the overall environment for Trump, the economy, prices, the war, gas, all that, like, it's very unusual and really quite striking that there are Democrats who are so concerned about their party's nominee that they're willing to vote for the candidate who's aligned with Donald Trump," he said.
Better yet for Republicans, the polls may be missing it.
Peters noted concerns that Michigan surveys are oversampling college-educated voters, who form El-Sayed's base, and that first-time GOP crossovers are keeping quiet.
"But people also, from what I'm hearing, are somewhat reluctant to tell a pollster that they're going to be voting for a Republican for the first time in their lives," he added.
Recommended: A Pollster Just Admitted Faking Its Numbers, and The Fallout Is Huge!
This was a predictable problem. Back in August, former Clinton pollster Mark Penn flagged the danger after El-Sayed barely survived his primary against Rep. Haley Stevens (D-Mich.), even though polls had projected a landslide. Penn calculated that if just 5% of Stevens' voters defected, Rogers would likely win.
"It is highly likely that you're going to find 5% of those Steven voters who are going to switch to the other side. And that alone would give a margin of victory to Rogers," Penn told Fox News.
💥NEW: Former Clinton Pollster Mark Penn: "It is HIGHLY LIKELY that you're gonna find 5% of those Stevens voters who are gonna switch to the other side — and that ALONE would give a margin of victory to Rogers." https://t.co/QyepqDyclt
— Jason Cohen 🇺🇸 (@JasonJournoDC) August 6, 2026
This isn't limited to El-Sayed's race either.
Last week on CNN News Central, CNN's Harry Enten walked host John Berman through the collapse in New York, where Jewish voters make up a larger share of the electorate than in any other state.
In Siena polling, Andrew Cuomo carried Jewish voters by fifty-five points in the 2018 governor's race, and Gov. Kathy Hochul (D-N.Y.) won them by fifty-one in 2022. This year, her lead has shriveled to thirteen points. That's a 38-point swing toward the GOP in a single term.
The generic House ballot tells the same story. Democrats led among New York Jewish voters by forty points in 2018 and forty-nine in 2022. This year's polling average has them up by only thirteen.
"Their lead has absolutely tumbled into the Hudson River among Jewish voters. Yes, they are still ahead, but we are talking about historically strong numbers for Republicans among Jewish voters," Enten explained.
That shift could rescue Rep. Mike Lawler (R-N.Y.), whose 17th District has a large Jewish population and went for Kamala by less than a point. Prediction markets give Lawler a 39% chance of holding the seat, which makes him an underdog, but a live one in a year when Democrats expect to dominate New York.
Enten said Lawler's competitiveness alone "is an indication that Jewish voters, if in fact they vote the way that the polls say, they may just save Mike Lawler's seat in Congress for him."
Democrats have a knack for taking their loyal constituencies for granted, and it’s coming back to bite them once again.
