Once again, I'll say it up front: I think Republicans will outperform the polls this year. Exactly how much remains an open question. I'm not trying to give you all false hope, but I've been looking at a lot more than just the matchup polls and the generic ballot polls, and my instincts tell me exactly what they did when we got flooded with polling claiming that Kamala Harris was beating Donald Trump in 2024: something isn't right here.
And trust me, I hate it when people just say "the polls are wrong" whenever they see one they don't like. That doesn't help anyone. The thing is, it's not just me saying it, and there are people on the left and right warning Democrats not to get too excited yet.
On Fox News' Hannity this week, Victor Davis Hanson laid out why it's Democrats who ought to be panicking about the polls. Host Sean Hannity set up the conversation by reminding viewers how badly the polls have been off in the past, including this year.
"If you believe the polls, Abdul El-Sayed would have won the primary in Michigan by 20 points," Hannity said. "He won by barely a point." "If you believe the polls, between 20 and 30 points, Francesca Hong would have won," he continued.
Asked what he was seeing in the key races, Hanson didn't hesitate. "Well, something's definitely going on," he said. "I mean, for a supposed blue wave, Sean, there's, these races in Minnesota and Maine and Michigan shouldn't be, and Oregon and New York, whether Senate or gubernatorial, they shouldn't be so close."
Then he added the piece Democrats should find most troubling. "And when you add in the second factor that in the last three elections, the pollsters have been off by three to five to the detriment of Republicans," Hanson explained. "So it's just, I think it's a question of time."
Hanson credited GOP candidates for standing by what they've said instead of scrubbing their social media accounts or claiming they never meant it. Their opponents, he argued, "are starting to panic because basically they have an agenda that's about 40% approval and they know it."
That's a problem Democrats can't solve with a few deleted posts, or just claiming to hold a position different from what you’ve had for years. An agenda stuck around 40% doesn't get any more popular because you hide it until after Election Day.
🚨 BREAKING: Victor Davis Hanson says Democrats should be panicking about the polls. Victor Davis Hanson on Hannity: "For a supposed blue wave, Sean, there's these races in Minnesota and Maine and Michigan and Oregon and New York... they shouldn't be so close." He also pointed out that in the last three elections, pollsters missed by three to five points against Republicans. The media is selling a blue wave. The races say otherwise. Go VOTE!
— Gunther Eagleman™ (@GuntherEagleman) October 15, 2026
And there's a lot of evidence to back Hanson up. CNN's chief data analyst, Harry Enten, previously looked at what this year's results would look like if past polling misses repeat themselves. He modeled the 2026 Senate map with the polls underestimating Republicans by two to four points.
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The results won't do much for Democrat morale. Under those historic misses, North Carolina and Georgia stay blue. But Maine stays red. Ohio stays red. Iowa stays red. Alaska stays red. Michigan flips red. And yes, despite all the hype, Texas stays red.
"This polling error absolutely has happened before," Enten added.
The House picture looks much the same. According to Enten, if the polls undershoot Republicans by more than three points, "that's all you need" for the GOP to hold the House of Representatives. He put a Republican majority at 218 or more seats in that scenario.
Of course, Republicans currently trail in the House generic ballot average, and you can bet the media will wave that number around for the next three weeks. Enten wasn't ready to treat it as gospel.
"Even if Democrats are favored, it is still within the margin of error," Enten said.
CNN: Republicans win both the House and Senate if the polls underestimate them like they did in 2024 2026 Midterms if polls underestimate the GOP House: 🔴 Republicans: 218 🔵 Democrats: 217 Senate: 🔴 Republicans: 53 🔵 Democrats: 47 https://t.co/aYPoPG3bNr
— OSZ (@OpenSourceZone) September 1, 2026
A miss of three points would be enough to keep the House in Republican hands, and Hanson pegs the recent misses at three to five points, always in the same direction. Even CNN's own numbers guy concedes the race is far from settled.
And that was based on polling from over a month ago. Several polls show the GOP’s position improving since then. Will the Democrats care? I think that’s the good news. They desperately want to believe this is a blue-wave election and are convinced the stars are aligned in their favor. Democrats can keep treating those numbers as a promise of victory if they want, but Republicans would be smart to treat them as a dare, keep making their case to the voters the pollsters keep overlooking, and let those voters have the final word.
