Every two years, Democrats convince themselves that Texas is finally about to turn blue, and every two years, Texas voters remind them otherwise. This year, they think they have the perfect storm of factors working in their favor: a Republican nominee with baggage, a flattering batch of polls, and a messy divorce they can wave in front of conservative voters. That whole strategy depends on one woman staying on the sidelines, and she just declined to cooperate.
I don't believe Texas is flipping. Never have. Still, the polls put Texas State Rep. James Talarico (D-50th District) ahead of Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton in the U.S. Senate race. The latest New York Times/Siena survey, released Saturday, puts Talarico up six points, though many observers have pointed to problems with that poll, but even the RealClearPolling average shows him leading, too. For a party that hasn't won a statewide race in Texas in more than three decades, that's intoxicating stuff, especially with control of the Senate potentially on the line.
In their quest to flip the state, Democrats have weaponized Paxton's personal scandals against him, including his divorce from state Sen. Angela Paxton. In July 2025, she announced she had filed for divorce on what she called "biblical grounds," and court filings cited adultery allegations. The case remains unresolved.
Today, after 38 years of marriage, I filed for divorce on biblical grounds. I believe marriage is a sacred covenant and I have earnestly pursued reconciliation. But in light of recent discoveries, I do not believe that it honors God or is loving to myself, my children, or Ken to remain in the marriage. I move forward with complete confidence that God is always working everything together for the good of those who love Him and who are called according to His purpose.
— Senator Angela Paxton (@AngelaPaxtonTX) July 10, 2025
You can see why Democrats thought they had a gift. A wronged wife who is also a respected conservative lawmaker is about the most damaging character witness a campaign could face. She represents a North Texas district centered on McKinney, won her seat in 2018, and spent years as a teacher and counselor before that. Her brand is education, faith, and conservative priorities. If anyone could give churchgoing Republicans permission to stay home, it was her.
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Instead, Angela Paxton has now pulled the rug out from underneath them. With the midterm elections only weeks away, she appears in a new ad urging voters to back the entire Republican ticket, and she does it without ever saying her husband's name.
"I'm Texas Senator Angela Paxton. People have asked my thoughts about this election, and turns out I have some," she says in the Texas PAC ad. "Let's talk about the elephant in the room. In a general election, it's not as much about the individual players on the team, it's about getting the whole team across the finish line."
She then spells out the stakes. "Either we hold every Republican seat, or we hand the future of Texas to the other team," she continues. "That's why I'm voting for the Republican ticket on November 3. Let's hold the line together."
#TXPol: "I'm Texas Senator Angela Paxton. People have asked my thoughts about this election and turns out, I have some ... I'm voting for the Republican ticket on November 3rd." Texas PAC is up with a new ad featuring Angela Paxton, Ken Paxton's estranged wife. https://t.co/U7yYZ6ZBXp
— AdImpact Politics (@AdImpact_Pol) October 3, 2026
The ad is smart politics. She kept quiet about both the divorce and the Senate race for more than a year, so this is the clearest signal she’s given that Republicans should rally behind the nominee. She doesn't pretend the unease isn't real, and she doesn't ask anyone to admire the man.
She isn't alone, either. The Paxtons' daughter, Mattie Hayworth, appears in a separate campaign ad with her husband and children, defending her father and blaming Democrat policies for rising family costs. "When they come after you, my dad goes after them," Hayworth says.
WATCH: I want my grandkids to grow up in a strong and prosperous Texas, but liberal politicians like James Talarico are making it harder to get ahead. But when they come after you, I go after them. https://t.co/EHQzJBbnSn
— Attorney General Ken Paxton (@KenPaxtonTX) October 2, 2026
You know the ad is effective because the left-wing media has come out mocking it. Nobody bothers to ridicule a message that isn't landing.
