What's going to happen in this year's midterms? I have no idea. I’m not going to tell you that the polls are all wrong, so don’t worry, and I certainly can’t say they’re reliable either. But I’ll give you my read.
For a long time, the working assumption was that Democrats would likely take back the House and Republicans would hold the Senate. Depending on where and how you look, that assumption now comes with caveats. Lots of them.
As you’re likely aware, Democrats think they can flip Texas with Texas State Rep. James Talarico (D-50th District). I don't see that being possible, but the polls suggest it is. Georgia looks likely to stay in Democrat hands, and North Carolina looks likely to flip (the GOP is reportedly pulling spending from these races), though both outcomes were largely expected. Ohio is close enough to be rated a toss-up. Meanwhile, since Democrats in Michigan stupidly nominated Abdul El-Sayed, they’ve turned it into a pickup opportunity for the GOP, though not a sure thing.
Despite the advantages Democrats carry into this election, real signs suggest that Republicans are stronger than the polls indicate. And the landscape has been changing.
Democrats originally said their path to a Senate majority ran through Maine. But Sen. Susan Collins (R-Maine) is polling better against Troy Jackson than she did in her last race, when she outperformed the polls by double digits against Sara Gideon in 2020, the same year Joe Biden carried Maine, which says a lot about her strength there. I still believe that if the environment were that bad for the GOP this year, she'd be polling worse than she did in 2020. She's polling better.
Then there's Minnesota, a reliable blue state, where Republican Michele Tafoya is in a tight race with Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan. According to RealClearPolitics, that race sits within the margin of error. New Hampshire, which hasn't voted for a Republican for president since 2000, also has a close Senate race. These are not races that the Democrats were counting on being competitive. Trust me.
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So what does that mean for Texas? It tells me that if Republicans are outperforming in blue states, there's no reason to believe Talarico would win in a state that elected President Donald Trump by 14 points two years ago. I don’t care what the special circumstances are in those states.
The enthusiasm numbers suggest Republicans are potentially more competitive than polls suggest
CNN's Harry Enten recently reported that the two bases are equally fired up. "71% of Democrats say they are certain, in fact, to vote in 2026," Enten said. "And look at this MAGA Republicans the same, it's simpatico, it's simpatico."
🚨 UPDATE: CNN confirms that MAGA Republicans have SURGED enthusiasm to match the anti-Trump rabid Democrats in the 2026 midterms
— Eric Daugherty (@EricLDaugh) September 28, 2026
DEMOCRATS: 71%
MAGA GOP: 71%
GOOD!! Now get it EVEN HIGHER and vote IN DROVES.
2024 MAGA coming out = we hold the House, hold the Senate, and SAVE… pic.twitter.com/6zXTAOFuov
This destroys the left's narrative that MAGA Republicans have been abandoning Trump.
Earlier this week, Enten also walked through how Republicans have beaten their September polls in key Midwest states where Democrats now lead.
"In Iowa, where the Democrats have been getting really good polls, Republicans outperformed their September polls by nine points back in 2024," he said. "How about Ohio? Six points. How about Michigan? Five points. And I will note that the leads that the Democrats have in all of these races right now are under how much the GOP outperformed back in 2024."
Run that pattern forward, and Republicans keep the Senate. "You get a red Michigan. You get a red Ohio. You get a red Iowa," Enten explained. "And all of a sudden, even if Democrats carry states like Texas, Georgia, and North Carolina and Alaska, well, guess what you get? You get a 50/50 Senate with J.D. Vance casting the tie-breaking vote."
Dems have had a lot of very good polls from Iowa, Mich & Ohio.
— (((Harry Enten))) (@ForecasterEnten) September 30, 2026
But are polls underestimating the GOP again? In all 3 states, GOP did better by 5+ pt in 2024 than polls had at this point.
Same thing in Trump's 1st midterm.
Same happens in 2026? GOP probably holds the Senate. pic.twitter.com/NZYxhGyRgd
On top of that, the GOP has a huge money advantage that could prove decisive in close races over the final stretch.
Here's the thing: none of this guarantees anything. Polling misses in past cycles don't cast ballots in this one, and a money edge only matters if it moves people to the polls. A lot is going on, and the simple answer is that turnout will decide who controls Congress next year.
In the end, if you don't get out and vote, you're part of the problem.
