Tuesday night, we’ll find out whether Sen. Darline Graham (R-S.C.) will emerge victorious. Despite receiving an endorsement from President Donald Trump, I’ve not seen a compelling reason to support her over Rep. Ralph Norman (R-S.C.). Graham, the sister of the late Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.), is fighting for a full six-year term in the seat she inherited after his death. She placed first two weeks ago in a crowded primary against Norman and more than a half-dozen other candidates. Multiple Republican sources say that win looks like her high point. Why? Because Republicans reportedly increasingly believe Graham is going to lose Tuesday's South Carolina Senate runoff despite the Trump endorsement and millions in outside spending propping her up.
But is that really how this ends?
"You're running a campaign with a virtual unknown that took on all of her brother's unfavorables without any of the goodwill that her brother has in a very short-sprint special election," a Republican operative with experience in South Carolina races told NOTUS, adding that explaining her weak position "isn't rocket science."
It’s hard to get a great read on the election because public polling has been sparse. A Trafalgar Group poll released late Monday showed Graham and Norman tied at 48% each, while a separate survey showed Norman with a high-single-digit lead. Prediction markets disagree: Kalshi has Graham favored at 67% to Norman's 32%, and Polymarket favors her by essentially the same amount.
"Tomorrow's election is the biggest black box in recent memory here," a South Carolina-based Republican operative not involved in the race said, pointing to the lack of neutral public polling.
Graham has served in the Senate only since mid-July, giving her almost no time to grieve, learn the job, and decide whether to run for a full term. "Her only good is hyper-engaged Trump voters," the Republican operative who has worked South Carolina races said. "There is no Darline Graham voter. No one's voting for Darline because of Darline."
And that’s always been what’s troubled me about her candidacy. Graham has no legislative record of her own, so she has tried to build one fast, co-sponsoring anti-abortion legislation and the SAVE America Act, a voting-restriction bill Trump has prioritized, but all that tells me is that Trump’s motivation in supporting her was trusting that she’d be a reliable vote for his agenda.
She hasn’t done a great job proving herself worthy of the seat in her own right.
During Graham's debate with Norman, moderator Greta Van Susteren asked her whether Taiwan and the South China Sea are U.S. national security issues. Graham said she is "not that informed on national security." She added, "But I do support the military. I'm not a polished politician. National security is not my thing."
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Let's be honest here. National security is table stakes for any Senate candidate, and Graham looked like she had never once considered the subject before the cameras turned on.
"Fire the debate preppers,” one Senate Republican argued. "Anybody with a couple of weeks should have been ready enough for that debate, and there was no evidence of ready in that debate. You don't have to be an expert. But you have to have a working knowledge."
The South Carolina-based operative said the trend line for Graham "has not been good," calling it "just not a good headline." Low-propensity voters who backed her in the primary, largely on Trump's endorsement and Fox coverage, have since drifted away. Trump has campaigned hard for her regardless, headlining a Myrtle Beach rally Friday, while super PACs have spent more than $6 million on ads for her.
Graham’s biggest asset has been, and always will be, sympathy. She is running as a tribute to her brother, leaning on his passing instead of any record of her own. Her campaign website makes the pitch explicit. "Darline Graham didn't seek this job. She answered the call when her brother, Senator Lindsey Graham, passed away suddenly," the site reads. "Accepting the appointment to the U.S. Senate from Governor Henry McMaster, Darline said it plainly: 'Lindsey has always been there for me, and now, I'll be there for him.'"
That's a genuinely moving story. It doesn't answer a single question about the South China Sea.
Norman is a known quantity, a self-funded conservative who doesn't need Trump's help to explain who he is or what he believes in. Graham is a name on a ballot, backed by Trump’s endorsement and $6 million in outside money, without a reason for voters to show up for her specifically. Sympathy got her this far. It should not be enough to hand her a full six-year term in the U.S. Senate.
