For weeks, Washington held its breath over two names: Clarence Thomas and Samuel Alito. Rumors swirled, a June report set off a brief panic, and speculation about the Supreme Court's future refused to die down. Now one of those two men has finally spoken, making his intentions clear. Conservatives should be thrilled. So why does the answer leave me more nervous than relieved?
Samuel Alito told the Wall Street Journal on Friday that he is not retiring.
JUST IN: Alito Tells WSJ He’s Not Retiring — Will Serve Another Term on Supreme Court pic.twitter.com/Wz4cqjxq1u
— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) August 7, 2026
“Obviously I’m here for another term,” he said. He intends to serve another term on the Court, putting an end to weeks of speculation about his future on the bench.
In June, for about ten minutes, it looked like Alito was about to hand liberals a rerun. National Public Radio (NPR) published a story claiming he was stepping down. The report ran on the final day of the Supreme Court's opinion releases for the term. It was wrong, but for those short minutes, the prospects of a Supreme Court confirmation battle were, honestly, kind of thrilling.
Alito is 75, the second-oldest justice on the Court. President George W. Bush appointed him in 2006, and he has voted with the Court's conservative bloc ever since. I actually got to experience his confirmation hearings briefly during a visit to Washington, D.C.
Of course, at 77, Clarence Thomas is the oldest justice. President George H.W. Bush appointed him in 1991, and he has become one of the most influential conservative voices in the court's history.
I've said before that with Donald Trump in the White House and Republicans holding the Senate, the timing is ripe for Thomas and/or Alito to consider retiring so Trump can confirm younger conservative replacements. The alternative is gambling with the conservative majority the way Democrats gambled with Ruth Bader Ginsburg's seat, and lost.
Ginsburg stayed on the court through Barack Obama's presidency despite her advanced age and declining health. She died a few weeks before the 2020 election. Trump quickly nominated Amy Coney Barrett, and the Senate confirmed her, a result that infuriated much of the political left. If Thomas or Alito retired before the 2026 midterm elections, Trump could nominate a replacement while Republicans still hold the Senate. That's precisely the retirement strategy Democrats attempted with Ginsburg and failed to pull off.
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The court currently holds a 6-3 conservative majority. That majority could shrink to 5-4, or worse, flip to 4-5, if Thomas or Alito died or retired during a future Democrat administration. The consequences for constitutional originalism would be severe and lasting.
So here I am, conflicted again. Alito has been a fabulous justice, and I'm glad he isn't going anywhere yet. But there's no guarantee the opportunity to retire on favorable terms will still exist after next term. It looks like Republicans will hold the Senate. But “looks like” isn't a guarantee, and this court's future is too important to leave to hope.
