Democrats have spent months promising a blue wave is coming this November, the kind of political tsunami that flips Congress and buries Republicans and the Trump agenda. Every ingredient for that wave is supposedly in place. And yet the numbers tell a starkly different story, one that's becoming impossible to ignore even at the network Democrats trust most after MS NOW. So why isn't the wave showing up? And who does CNN say is really to blame?
On paper, this should be the Democrats' moment. They’ve got history on their side, President Donald Trump's approval rating has been sagging, and the war in Iran is deeply unpopular with the American public. Democrats should be cleaning up in the polls on who Americans trust to handle Iran.
They're not.
"You would think that Democrats would be able to take advantage and be dominating Republicans when it comes to who is trusted to handle the Iran War," CNN chief data analyst Harry Enten said. "That, simply put, is not the case at all."
Enten pointed to two separate polls, a CNBC survey earlier in the month and a CBS News poll released the very next day, both showing the same result. Republicans trusted over Democrats on Iran by two points. Trump's own approval on the issue sits at negative two, and Republicans still came out ahead.
"The American people, simply put, are not buying what Democrats are selling on Iran," Enten said.
Recommended: The Democratic National Committee Is Imploding
It gets worse for Democrats. Anchor John Berman asked whether the numbers had shifted over time, expecting that a prolonged war would eventually erode support for Trump and Republicans. Instead, Enten found the opposite. Back in April, a Washington Post/Ipsos poll had Democrats trusted by two points. Since then, trust has moved toward Republicans, not away from them.
"If anything, the Republicans have been the ones that have been gaining ground, which I think just goes so opposed to all of the news coverage that we have seen so far," Enten said.
So what's dragging Democrats down even as Trump struggles? Enten laid the blame squarely on the Democrat Party itself. Congressional Democrats' net approval ratings have cratered to some of the lowest levels ever recorded, sitting at -41, -39, and -39 points.
"The Democratic Party, in the minds of the American public, are weak, weak, weak, to quote the great Tony Blair," Enten said.
Berman summed up the dynamic bluntly, describing it as "D on D crime," Democrats so disliked by their own voters that even a deeply unpopular war and a slumping president can't save them.
"It would be much easier if they were, you know, actually liked," Enten replied.
That's the whole story in one sentence.
CNN's Harry Enten just put a pin in the Democrat's hopes for a blue wave this November.
— Thomas Hern (@ThomasMHern) July 27, 2026
"The Democrat Party in the minds of the American public are weak, weak, weak."
"The Democrats in Congress, simply put, are not well liked."
This is what happens when TDS runs your party. pic.twitter.com/JWjCwiQyYP
Democrats didn't lose the trust of the American people because Republicans outmaneuvered them. They lost it on their own, and now even CNN's own data team is conceding what conservatives have been saying for months. The blue wave that Democrats have been counting on isn't coming, and Democrats have no one to blame but themselves.
