The moment Graham Platner dropped out of Maine's Senate race, prediction markets moved. The Democrat Party's odds of flipping the seat shot up almost instantly, and the conventional wisdom quickly settled into place. With the scandal-ridden Nazi tattoo guy gone, Democrats were back on track to knock off Sen. Susan Collins (R-Maine).
Not so fast.
Despite their new presumptive nominee, Troy Jackson carries baggage of his own, and he's already underperforming against Collins. A new University of New Hampshire poll shows Jackson leading Collins 49-46. On paper, that's a lead. But let’s look at what that actually means. Because, believe it or not, there's good news buried in that three-point deficit. Collins trailed Platner by a larger margin not long ago, which suggests that Jackson's ceiling sits well below Platner's. Democrats swapped out a flawed frontrunner for a weaker one, and the polling already reflects it.
And when you dig into the numbers, Democrats have plenty of reason to worry. Collins holds a stronger grip on the right than Jackson holds on the left, and she leads with moderates, which is huge in a state like Maine. Self-described socialists back Jackson 99-0, the so-called “progressive” cohort breaks for him 79-18, and liberals support him 82-4. Collins wins moderates 49-41, libertarians 74-25, and conservatives 98-1. A Democrat who can't consolidate his own base while losing the middle has a real problem, and Jackson is that Democrat.
Maine Senate Crosstabs by UNH
— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) July 21, 2026
🟦 Troy Jackson: 49%
🟥 Susan Collins: 46%
🟨 Other: 2%
——
🔵 Socialist: Jackson 99-0
🔵 Progressive: Jackson 79-18
🔵 Liberal: Jackson 82-4
🔴 Moderate: Collins 49-41
🔴 Libertarian: Collins 74-25
🔴 Conservative: Collins 98-1
——
🔵 Dem: Jackson… https://t.co/9iavjleNTB pic.twitter.com/5wugP8eUJk
And then there's Collins' well-documented habit of beating the polls. In 2020, RealClearPolitics' final average before the election had Sara Gideon leading Collins by 6.5 points. Collins won by more than eight points, a swing of 14 points.
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Jackson's troubles are only beginning. We’ve gotten a small taste of the baggage that Jackson has, and what has already come out shouldn't leave Democrats feeling confident about him. Meanwhile, Collins has represented Maine in the Senate for 30 years, and she has a record of delivering for the state, which is why she always beats the polls. On top of that, voters there know her, and they know she lacks drama and scandal.
None of this is a reason for Republicans to get comfortable, though. Maine races are always close, the left will pour money into this seat, and a three-point gap is still a gap. And despite Collins’ ability to beat the polls, you can’t exactly bank on that. Collins needs every possible vote to hold this seat and stop the Democrat Party's attempts to flip the Senate.
