Historically, Democrats have had the advantage in this midterm election cycle, and many metrics support this, mainly presidential approval ratings and generic congressional ballot polls. Is a wave coming? Democrats want to think so. They want to believe they can not only retake the House but also flip the Senate. But what if the lead Democrats are celebrating right now doesn't come close to the margins that have actually produced wave elections?
On Monday, CNN's Harry Enten broke down national congressional polling data, and the picture he painted wasn't exactly the one Democrats are hoping for heading into November.
According to NBC News polling, Democrats currently lead Republicans by five points on the generic congressional ballot. At first glance, that sounds like a decent position. Oh, but let me tell you, it's not. In 2018, when Democrats flipped the House in a genuine wave, they led by 10 points at this stage in the cycle. In 2006, another wave year with another House flip, they led by 11 points.
Five points is half the 2018 lead and less than half of 2006. Based on these numbers, the Democrats, expecting a wave, are going to get a ripple instead, and it may not be enough to win the majority.
"They're up by five points. But that's half the lead they had back in 2018, when it was 10 points and less than half the lead they had back in 2006 with 11 points, when Democrats took back the House in both of those years," Enten said. "And now the Democratic lead is on a single hand. One, two, three, four, five points. And it's this type of lead where you say, you know what, Democrats are ahead, but don't count your chickens just quite yet."
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CNN anchor John Berman asked whether this was a one-poll anomaly or something showing up across the board. Enten's answer was as unambiguous as it could be. "This is not just one poll in which we are seeing this," Enten said. "There is this group of pollsters that are out there that are just not showing the wave you might expect given where the President's approval rating is."
He pointed to three pollsters that all told similar stories: NBC News, Marquette University Law School, and Ipsos. In January and February, all three showed Democrats with leads. By May and June, the picture shifted. NBC slipped a point. Marquette University Law School dropped three points. Ipsos held roughly steady.
"Look at where they were January and February. And look at where they are, May and June. NBC down a point. MU Law down three points. Ipsos basically staying the same," Enten said. "So the Democrats hold these leads, but again, you have this group of pollsters that are out there where this lead, simply put, is not matching what you might expect if you were expecting a Democratic wave."
Democrats are watching their numbers slide or flatline at the very moment they'd expect momentum to be building. That tells you a lot about where this cycle actually stands.
In fact, Berman raised another factor that makes the math even tougher for Democrats: Republicans are already locked in structural gains through redistricting going into this cycle. The map already leans GOP. A five-point generic ballot lead isn't as powerful as it looks when Democrats no longer have as many gerrymandered seats to boost their performance.
CNN: Dem Lead Much Smaller Than Previous Blue Waves
— OSZ (@OpenSourceZone) June 15, 2026
Generic Congressional Ballot June Polls:
2006: 🔵 Dem +11
2018: 🔵 Dem +10
2026: 🔵 Dem +5
Democrats Lead is also shrinking:
NBC: 🔵 Dem +6 -> 🔵 Dem +5
MU Law: 🔵 Dem +4 -> 🔵 Dem +1
Ipsos: 🔵 Dem +3 -> 🔵 Dem +3 pic.twitter.com/nnBKeCxhxI
Does that mean Democrats won’t take the House? Hardly.
“Yes, Democrats probably take back the House, but it's far from a guarantee,” Enten conceded.
