The left is giddy right now. They've got what they think are two Senate flips on a silver platter, with a trans-loving seminary student in Texas and a Nazi-tattooed Democrat in Maine. The champagne is flowing, the hot takes are publishing, and the consultants are already booking victory parties. Before you let their giddiness give you panic, though, take a breath. There's a lot more context behind these two races than the headlines let on, and when you zoom out, the picture looks a whole lot less scary than Democrats want you to think.
Let's start with Texas.
It took almost no time after Ken Paxton's primary runoff victory over John Cornyn for Democrats to start projecting an inevitable Senate flip in November. Their nominee, James Talarico, is already being treated like a serious contender.
He is not.
Donald Trump carried Texas by roughly 14 points in 2024. Even if you grant that the political environment has shifted somewhat since then, it hasn't shifted enough to make Talarico remotely viable statewide. Texas Democrats haven't won a statewide election in more than three decades. They haven't found the magic formula since, and they haven't shown any interest in trying. Rather than nominate a moderate or conservative Democrat who might actually be competitive, the party just keeps feeding the same losing formula to Texas voters.
Beto O'Rourke came the closest anyone has come to breaking that streak, losing to Ted Cruz by four points in 2018. Democrats were so convinced Beto was the answer that they poured tens of millions of dollars into that race. They lost anyway.
Meanwhile, Ken Paxton is not even an unknown quantity to Texas voters, having won three consecutive statewide elections as attorney general.
Now Democrats think Talarico is the guy to finally crack the code. The same Talarico who posted a video declaring, "I love trans children." The same Talarico who called the American flag "such a complicated symbol for most of us." The same Talarico whose statements on gender, race, and trans issues, and whose bizarre biblical interpretations, are going to be looped on television sets across the state from now until Election Day.
Related: Talarico Is Now Trying to Run Away From His Radical Positions
Now, for Maine, where Democrats really managed to shoot themselves in the foot. Gov. Janet Mills dropped out of the race because the polls show the left rallied behind Graham Platner. Now he’s their presumptive nominee, and they're already projecting victory. Platner is currently up nine points in the latest poll, and the media is treating it as if Susan Collins is already packing her desk.
Call me skeptical.
Six years ago, Collins won reelection by 8.6 points even though not a single poll ever showed her ahead. Her opponent, Sara Gideon, led in most surveys by four or five points, and at times by as much as 12 points. Collins won by nearly nine. That same year, Joe Biden carried Maine by nine points. Collins won by almost the same margin as the top of the Democrat ticket. You're going to need to bring a lot more than a few favorable polls to convince me that Platner has this locked up.
But, between his Nazi tattoo and documented racism, sexism, homophobia, and a portapotty fetish, there's very little about him that screams general election viability. Meanwhile, the NRSC reportedly has even more damaging information in the pipeline, which means it's going to get worse for him before it gets better.
Democrats think they're sitting pretty. They're not. Texas remains Texas, and Maine has a long history of defying polls when it comes to Susan Collins. The left can pop their champagne now. They'll be pouring it down the drain come November.
