I have to say, as a conservative, I feel really good about the choices we'll have for president in 2028, but if I were a Democrat, I'd be panicking about my choices — a lot.
Pollsters have been surveying voters on the 2028 Democratic primary pretty much ever since Donald Trump won reelection in 2024. And you've heard the names — Kamala Harris, Gavin Newsom, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, Pete Buttigieg, JB Pritzker. I’m pretty sure Eric Swalwell is no longer being polled.
It’s not a great list. Each one comes with their own particular brand of baggage. But a surprise poll just dropped that tells you everything you need to know about where the Democratic Party stands right now.
A new national survey from AtlasIntel, which was rated the most accurate pollster in the 2024 election cycle by Nate Silver, tested the crowded field of potential 2028 Democratic presidential contenders. Respondents were asked whom they'd choose in a Democratic primary, and the result was genuinely stunning. For the first time in any AtlasIntel 2028 survey, Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-N.Y.) came out on top.
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez.
Seriously?
It’s true. AOC pulled 26% support. Buttigieg came in second at 22%, followed by Newsom at 21%. Kamala Harris, who is still apparently convinced she's a viable candidate, has cratered at just 13%. That’s an epic collapse for someone who has generally led in 2028 primary polling.
2028 PRESIDENTIAL PRIMARIES
— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) May 12, 2026
🔵 AOC: 26% (+10)
🔵 Buttigieg: 22% (+7)
🔵 Newsom: 21% (-14)
🔵 Harris: 13% (+5)
🔵 Beshear: 4%
🔵 Booker: 4%
🔵 Shapiro: 2%
——
🔴 Rubio: 45% (+22)
🔴 Vance: 30% (-17)
🔴 DeSantis: 11% (-2)
AtlasIntel (A) | 5/4-7 | A pic.twitter.com/i23Z0t1dGO
Those behind the top four are not even worth mentioning, but I will. You got Andy Beshear, Cory Booker, Josh Shapiro, and Gretchen Whitmer, who are all stuck in single digits. Tim Walz, Ro Khanna, Rahm Emanuel, Wes Moore, and Raphael Warnock? They're drawing less than 1%, with Warnock at a flat zero. The second tier of the Democratic Party essentially doesn't exist as far as primary voters are concerned.
ICYMI: Democrats Now Want to ABOLISH the Virginia Government
Now, here's the thing about Newsom and Harris — whatever you think of their records, at least they've actually run something. Newsom has been governor of California since 2019 and has been openly maneuvering toward a presidential run for years. Kamala ran two failed presidential campaigns and spent four years doing busy work during Biden’s presidency. On paper, they arguably have credentials, even if their records are hot garbage in a dumpster fire.
But AOC? Does a day go by when she isn’t a punchline for something? Even worse, she isn't seriously positioning herself for a presidential run at the moment, while both Newsom and Kamala clearly are. That makes this poll a huge vote of no confidence against them, which is kind of embarrassing.
Who am I kidding? It’s not kind of embarrassing; it’s utterly humiliating.
The fact that AOC is leading this field anyway is a sign that the Democratic base is searching desperately for something it can believe in. What they've found instead is someone who routinely makes headlines for the wrong reasons, fumbles basic policy questions, and would be more suited for a starring role in a reboot of Clueless.
And then there's the Republican side of the AtlasIntel poll, which should make Democrats even more miserable. Marco Rubio sits at 45% in the GOP primary — a dominant, almost prohibitive lead. JD Vance comes in below 30%, and Ron DeSantis is in the low double digits.
Imagine AOC on a debate stage against Marco Rubio or JD Vance. If you thought Joe Biden’s botched debate with President Donald Trump was bad, I think AOC debating either Rubio or Vance would be a worse humiliation for her.
Yet, she’s who her party wants? For real?
The Democrats have a long time to sort this out before 2028. But when you have an accurate pollster showing that their most passionate base is rallying around someone with AOC’s track record, while their more executive-tested candidates are bleeding support… well, the sorting isn't going well. Not even close.
