I know, I know: Donald Trump isn't even halfway through his second term, and the midterms haven’t even happened yet. But it’s still hard not to ask the question that's starting to feel inevitable: Who comes next? It's not idle speculation — it's political math. The moment the midterms end, the 2028 machine starts running. And something just shifted in a way that nobody saw coming. Could the presumed successor already be losing his grip?
Speculation about the Democrats has been well underway. And they’re kind of a mess. Kamala Harris leads in most polls, which tells you almost everything you need to know about the state of their bench. Next in line? Gavin Newsom, whose record as California's governor is a cautionary tale of the leadership you don’t want for this country.
Republicans, on the other hand… For months, JD Vance looked like a done deal. And in a lot of ways, he does. Vance has absolutely dominated 2028 Republican presidential nomination polling, averaging nearly 45.5 points in the RealClearPolitics aggregate — more than 30 points ahead of Donald Trump Jr. at 14.8% and Marco Rubio at 14%.
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But, in a curious twist, Vance's odds on Kalshi have dropped sharply — from a high of 54% down to 37% on the Republican nomination market.
BREAKING: Marco Rubio is now the odds favorite to win the 2028 Presidency pic.twitter.com/TtsG6iIFvI
— Kalshi (@Kalshi) May 6, 2026
How did this happen? The timing could be related to the Iran War. Vance presented the Iranians with what he called a "take-it-or-leave-it proposal to forever terminate their nuclear program, and they left it," according to the New York Times.
Another thing that arguably works against Vance is that he’s historically unpopular for a vice president, while Rubio’s approval as secretary of state is significantly better.
For what it’s worth, when it comes to the GOP nomination specifically, Vance still holds a meaningful edge — 37% to Rubio's 26% — and Polymarket has Vance ahead overall at 19.6%, with Newsom at 16.7% and Rubio at 15%.
Vance isn’t finished. I’d probably still bet on him being the nominee at this point. That said, it’s obvious that he’s not inevitable.
Yes, it's early. Polls can flip, crises can be redeemed, and a single strong debate performance can rewrite an entire narrative. Vance's polling lead is still the most grounded picture of where Republican voters actually stand today. But prediction markets have a track record of sniffing out momentum shifts before traditional polling catches up. When the smart money starts moving, smart people pay attention.
