The mainstream media is already writing the 2026 midterm script: Democrats are poised for a big comeback, Republicans on defense, the usual. And, yes, most polls suggest that is the case. There’s no denying that. But there's a number hiding in plain sight that suggests that the polls are once again not telling us the real story.
CNN's chief data analyst, Harry Enten, has been crunching the numbers on where black voters stand today compared with where they stood at the same point in Trump's first term. What he found isn't just interesting — it's huge.
"Trump's approval among African-Americans at this point in term one — he was at 12%," Enten said. "He's up to 16% at this point."
Four points doesn't sound like a revolution. But in coalition politics, especially in the South, it absolutely is. Enten made that clear.
"Republicans absolutely love this shift that's going on because Democrats have had such a long-term advantage," he said. "The fact that he's actually gaining ground versus where he was in term number one — this has major implications for elections down the line."
He's right. Think about those battleground states where razor-thin margins decide everything. A four-point approval swing among black voters — historically the Democrats’ most reliable voting bloc — could very well make a difference.
But the approval rating is only part of the story. The party identification numbers are where things get truly eye-opening.
"Look at the party I.D. margin among African-Americans at this point," Enten said. "In Trump term number one, Democrats had a 63-point advantage. That has absolutely fallen."
How far? A 12-point shift toward Republicans. Enten went back through Gallup's historical records and found that the Democratic lead among black voters is now smaller than at any point between 2006 and 2021. That's not a blip. That's a trend line.
"There are a number of African-Americans who are walking away from the Democratic Party and a number of them who are walking into the Republican tent," Enten said.
Why does this matter? Well, in 2024, after Kamala Harris was undemocratically installed as the Democratic Party’s nominee, we were treated to a bunch of polls claiming Kamala Harris was ahead of Donald Trump, despite polls showing he had historically high support from black and Hispanic voters.
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The two data points were never reconciled. If Trump was making real, documented gains with black voters, how was Harris simultaneously running competitive numbers? The math never added up. Either the polls were undercounting Trump's support — again — or the media was so committed to a Kamala victory narrative that the underlying coalition data got buried beneath the wishful thinking.
We know how that ended.
And now, heading into 2026, I suspect the same analysts and outlets that missed 2024 are confident they have the midterm map figured out. History says the party in the White House loses seats in the midterms. That's true. But has history not accounted for a realignment this significant happening this fast?
"This could have major ramifications and help put Republicans over the top in a number of southern places in the midterm elections," Enten said.
Trump's GOP is holding on to the generational gains they made with Black voters in the 2024 election.
— (((Harry Enten))) (@ForecasterEnten) April 30, 2026
The GOP has gained 12 pts on the Dems on party id with African Americans vs. Trump term 1 at this point.
Trump's approval with Black voters is higher than it was in term 1. pic.twitter.com/EKiEv561jk
You think?
