I’ve been writing a lot about the midterms lately because they’re important. The outcome of the elections in November won’t just determine the balance of power in Congress but also whether Donald Trump’s legislative agenda gets stalled, whether there will be an impeachment, whether judges can be confirmed, and whether we can get more Supreme Court justices. There’s a lot at stake. And Bill Maher made an observation recently that I think is worth taking a closer look at.
“We're gonna have midterm elections very soon,” Maher said during a recent segment of his show, Real Time with Bill Maher. “Now, here's the stats that are important. Seven in 10 people say tariffs have cost them money. Food is up 2.9% since January. Household debt, up 4%. Utilities up 6%. Obamacare subsidies cut 22 million people.”
He then said, “The Democrats are not gonna win this election. The Republicans are gonna lose it. There's a difference between not winning and losing, okay?”
He doubled down, trying to clarify the point as the conversation wobbled. “The Democrats can't not win this, the— because of all this that's going on.”
As we know, conditions favor Democrats by default, not because they’ve suddenly become popular, but historically speaking, the party out of power typically wins midterm elections. So yes, the political winds are blowing at their backs.
Maher continued, “But it's kinda like, I saw this game, you probably watched it, 'cause you see every game. Some, I think it was the Cavaliers, and they, they won.” He paused, setting up the punchline. “Like 138 to 132, and the coach, after the game, was pissed. His team won, but he said, like, ‘If we're gonna give up 132 points… we're not going anywhere in the playoffs.’”
“And that's what this reminds me of.”
The Democrats are not going to win the midterms; the Republicans are going to lose it. pic.twitter.com/aPBTOM5Q2Y
— Bill Maher (@billmaher) April 7, 2026
On its face, Maher’s point is right. If Democrats win the midterms, it’s not because they played a great game. The polls show this. Their lead in generic congressional ballot polling is historically slim. CNN even pointed out that Democrats are so unpopular, even within their own party, that despite all their advantages, they likely won’t be able to flip the Senate.
But here’s where Maher’s analysis needs a reality check. Republicans aren’t to blame for the high prices at the supermarket. They’re reacting to the lingering effects of Biden-era inflation. Prices shot up at a historic pace and stayed high, as they tend to do. They have not come down in a way that feels meaningful to ordinary people, despite wage growth under Trump. Let’s face it: A small increase on top of already inflated food costs still feels like a punch in the gut.
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Republicans are merely paying a price for the inflation that took place under Joe Biden.
Case in point: last year, Democrats infamously shared a chart blaming Donald Trump for high grocery prices, even though it clearly showed huge price spikes during Biden’s presidency and relatively flat prices upon Trump’s return to office.
Democrats shared a chart aiming to blame Trump for rising grocery prices. But the data shows otherwise.
— Stephen Moore (@StephenMoore) July 25, 2025
Nearly all of the 25% increase in food costs occurred during Biden’s term, as their own chart highlights.
Facts matter. pic.twitter.com/Zdpd5thSa1
But Maher’s warning still stands. Because even though the real blame for high prices at the supermarket should land on Joe Biden, Trump, and the GOP are in charge now.
Today, the GOP has a narrow window to prove that it can do more to make the public feel that things are better. It has to show credible, tangible progress on the one issue voters actually feel every single day: the cost of living: solid economic growth, lower prices, and real wage gains. We’re seeing it happen, and the March jobs report was a great sign of what could come, but the voters have to feel it.
Democrats aren’t even proposing solutions, just Trump hate and promises to impeach him. They’re not earning the majority; they’re just coasting on frustration with high prices — high prices they delivered in the first place.
