Here’s How Bad the Midterms Situation for the Democrats Really Is

Conventional wisdom says that Democrats are going to have a good year in the midterms. In fact, Democrats think a six-point lead in the generic congressional ballot is something to feel good about. Maybe they should take a closer look at the numbers before popping the champagne because the truth is that it looks like Democrats are blowing it.

And you don’t have to take my word for it either. CNN chief data analyst Harry Enten broke it down on Monday, and the picture for Democrats is a lot less rosy than party leadership would probably like to admit.

Yes, they're ahead — but only barely. Given historical precedent and the current political environment, they should be running away with it.

But they’re not.

"This lead is historically low for Democrats at this point with a Republican president," Enten said. "On average, their lead’s actually slightly less. It's five points. That's less than it was back in 2018 when it was eight points and way less than it was during the 2006 cycle when it was 11 points."

Five points.

Now, I don’t exactly trust the approval rating polls showing that President Donald Trump at -20 or -30, but still, with numbers like that, Democrats should be crushing the GOP in the general congressional ballot, but they’re not.

"You'd make the argument, Democrats should be way ahead, and they're just only sort of slightly ahead,” Enten pointed out.

It’s not just me saying that.

What does this mean in practical terms? Host John Berman noted that five points might be enough to flip the House, which operates on razor-thin margins. But the Senate? That's a completely different story. Democrats really want to flip the Senate because they think that if they do, they can impeach President Trump next year and convict him.

"I think five points is enough to take back the House," Enten said. "But in the Senate, five points is almost certainly not enough if you apply it to the Senate map."

The map is brutal for Democrats. Even in a scenario where Republicans hold only states Trump won by more than 10 points, the GOP still comes out ahead 51-49. Democrats would flip North Carolina and Maine, sure, but Ohio, Texas, and Alaska would stay red. Trump won all three by double digits, and Enten pointed to a sobering historical pattern to explain why that matters so much.

"During the Trump era, look at this, flip the Senate seat, midterm and presidential years, states the other party won by ten plus points in the last presidential election, zero, zero, zero times did a party flip those states."

Then there's the favorability problem, which might be the most damaging data point of all. In 2018, Democrats led Republicans on net favorability by 12 points. In 2006, they led by 18. Today? Republicans are actually ahead by five points on net favorability.

Berman tried to soften it slightly, noting that both parties are deeply unpopular with voters right now. Enten wasn't having it.

"Democrats are even more unpopular than Republicans," he pointed out.

🚨 HOLY CRAP! Even CNN was just forced to report that REPUBLICANS are leading net favorability by +5 points ahead of the 2026 midterms

That is HUGE, given in 2018, Democrats were +12

"Look at this. Party ahead, midterm year with GOP president? Republicans actually AHEAD by 5… pic.twitter.com/CgfJqWYezB
— Eric Daugherty (@EricLDaugh) April 6, 2026

That's the core of the problem. Democrats are running behind every relevant benchmark from their two big wave election cycles in an environment that should theoretically be handing them a massive structural advantage. A six-point generic ballot lead sounds decent until you realize it's probably not enough to take the Senate, too.

And that puts a huge dent in their plans for the second half of Trump’s term.

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