Something is going very wrong for Republicans — and their own members of Congress seem to know it before anyone else has to say it out loud. House Republicans are fleeing their own seats at a historic pace. The latest to announce his retirement is Rep. Sam Graves of Missouri, the powerful chair of the House Transportation Committee. What does this all mean? What are the implications?
CNN chief data analyst Harry Enten put the numbers in stark terms. "House Republicans are running for the exits faster than kids do on the final day of school," he said. With Graves now in the mix, 36 House Republicans have announced retirements this cycle — a record going all the way back to 1930. The previous all-time high was 34, set during the 2018 cycle. Republicans will remember that year well. It wasn't good for them.
What makes this even more alarming for the GOP is that the number is almost certainly going to keep climbing. "This number is likely to climb ever higher," Enten said.
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So why are they leaving? Enten says some elected officials read the room better than others, and right now the room smells like a disaster. The clearest signal is Donald Trump's approval rating, which currently sits at around 40%. That number has enormous historical consequences for the party holding the White House in a midterm year. Going back to 1938, when a president's approval rating is below 50%, his party loses an average of 34 House seats. Thirty-four. The best-case scenario on record — the floor, the absolute minimum — was nine seats lost, which was Joe Biden's result in 2022.
Remember, House Democrats need to flip just a handful of seats to reclaim the majority. Even the rosiest historical outcome for the GOP still likely hands Democrats the gavel. And we all know what that means if that happens.
"When the president's approval is less than 50%," Enten explained, "the House — the president's party in the House — on average, loses 34 seats." He went on to note that the only two midterm cycles in modern history where the president's party didn't lose at least three seats were 1998 and 2002 — and in both of those years, the sitting president had an approval rating north of 60%. Trump is at 40. Now, of course, Trump has always been difficult to poll, and his numbers aren’t even historically bad for a second term. Based on the RealClearPolitics average of the second-term approval ratings of Trump, Barack Obama, and George W. Bush, they’re all essentially within the margin of error of each other.
That said, the retirement data is still a major red flag.
Historically, the party with fewer House retirements in a midterm cycle goes on to win the chamber 80% of the time. Right now, far fewer Democrats are heading for the exits than Republicans. That’s a major tell. Members of Congress like to hang around, especially when they’re in a position of power, and if they leave on their own terms, it’s usually because they’d rather not lose an election.
"When one side runs for the exits, they lose the House of Representatives," Enten said plainly. "When one side stays put, it's because they think something good is going to happen. And House Democrats clearly think something good is going to happen, and House Republicans clearly think something very bad is going to happen."
‼️HOUSE GOP KNOWS IT’S OVER
— Maine (@TheMaineWonk) March 30, 2026
- 36 House GOP retirements so far (a record)
- Trump Approval: ~40%
- When POTUS approval is under 50% in midterms, POTUS party loses avg of 34 seats. Smallest: 9
- Trump lost 40 in 2018 with 40% approval
- House Currently 217-214 for GOP pic.twitter.com/GYpALelFhp
Of course, much of the issue here is the perception of the economy, which is still reeling from Bidenflation. If things get better, it could still be a good year for the GOP, but right now the signs point to things not going well in November.
