History has seldom been kind to the party holding the White House in midterm years, and 2026 may be no exception. I've long believed Trump and the GOP have what it takes to buck that trend. I still believe that. However, recent polling and prediction markets show that not only are Democrats favored to win the House, but their chances of winning the Senate are also looking better. The midterms are still eight months away, so anything can happen, and Republicans need to take things seriously.
A top pollster is warning Republicans that they’re in a tough spot right now.
Scott Rasmussen issued the alarm on Wednesday during the Napolitan News Service's Morning Briefing. "If the numbers that we're seeing today were the same in November, the Democrats would not only win the House, they would almost certainly win control of the Senate," he warned.
The pollster cited a fresh Napolitan News Service poll that found only 24% of voters said their personal finances are getting better, a five-point drop in just two weeks. Meanwhile, 39% said their finances are getting worse, an eight-point surge in that same window. "It's really hard to overstate how bad the latest numbers are," Rasmussen said.
Rasmussen told the Daily Caller that political insiders consistently underestimate this dynamic. "As James Carville colorfully reminded us decades ago, the economy sets the baseline for all elections. And, the way people feel about their personal finances is the single best measure of that baseline," he said.
Indeed so — and Carville infamously forgot this when he guaranteed that Kamala Harris would win in 2024.
Now, let’s not panic yet. Why? Because the White House knows this. The entire Republican congressional map knows this. The problem isn’t that the Trump economy is bad. The economy is quite good. The problem is that Trump took office after four years of Bidenflation. It took almost no time for Democrats, who spent the Biden years pretending inflation was under control, to suddenly blame Trump for price increases that had occurred under his predecessor. Inflation has indisputably cooled under Trump, but prices haven’t returned to their pre-Bidenflation levels. Unfortunately, they likely won’t. It will take other economic factors to make the public feel better about the economy: more jobs, better jobs, higher wages, etc. Those are coming, but it may take the public a while to feel it. That’s understandable, but things need to change quickly.
ICYMI: Fetterman Drops a Massive Truth Bomb on (and About) His Party, and It’s Epic
“When bad news comes in, people’s confidence falls almost immediately. When good news returns, it takes a while. For example, if the fighting ended tomorrow, and if the price of gas went back to where it was just before the fighting began, it would take about six months, normally, before the American people began to get their confidence back to where it had been,” Rasmussen explained. “But if you think about that, six months from now is mid-September.”
So, there’s hope for the GOP yet, but we may not see that reflected immediately. “Any improvement from this baseline begins to give the Republicans a better chance of holding the Senate," Rasmussen said, "That is still the most likely outcome. It is what I would predict at the moment." If gas prices fall and financial confidence rebounds in the coming months, Republicans can survive — even thrive. But Republicans need results people can feel, and they need them soon.
