The numbers are in, and they're not pretty for the left. A brand-new Harvard CAPS/Harris Poll, conducted February 25-26, is quite devastating for Democrats hoping to reclaim the majority in the House and Senate in November. Honestly, these numbers should have them rethinking everything heading into the midterms.
According to the poll, Trump's overall approval sits at 46%, ticking upward across nearly every policy area. His strongest marks came on fighting crime in cities (51%), immigration (48%), and returning America to its values (48%). Even his weakest categories — responding to anti-ICE protests in Minneapolis (42%) and tariffs and trade policy (43%) — are areas where the administration still has room to maneuver.
Here's where it gets especially inconvenient for the Democrats. A full 52% of voters say the economy is better today than it was under Biden — up 5 points from January. 51% say the economy is strong right now, up 8 points since November 2025. And 36% say their personal financial situation has improved, up 4 points since November, with gains concentrated among Republicans, males, likely midterm voters, and urban voters aged 25-44.
So, clearly, the trend is moving in Trump's way. That said, there’s still work to be done.
"The Americans are single-mindedly focused on the economy, and this poll shows there is room for people to change their opinion as we're seeing some improvement in the long-term trend,” Mark Penn, co-director of the Harvard CAPS / Harris Poll, said in a statement. He also warned that the Trump administration “has to keep working on explaining its economic policy to change the minds of voters ahead of the midterms."
ICYMI: Gov. Tim Walz Is Getting Destroyed on Capitol Hill
I think there’s a case to be made that if things weren’t going well for Trump and the GOP, Trump’s State of the Union address may have been a turning point. According to the poll, 47% of voters watched the State of the Union address. Of those who did, 60% had a favorable opinion of it.
That’s huge.
As for why, it’s simple. Every single one of the 11 new Trump policies announced that night drew majority support. The biggest winners: a congressional stock trading ban at 72%, federal retirement accounts for workers without pension plans at 70%, a ban on Wall Street firms buying single-family homes at 69%, and most-favored-nation drug pricing at 68%. In short, Trump is reading the room.
The Democrats' response? A mix of boycotts and bad optics. Fifty-two percent of voters called the Democrat boycott of the address appropriate, but 57% said the booing and jeering from those who did show up was out of line. Only 33% even bothered to watch Virginia Gov. Abigail Spanberger's Democratic rebuttal. They didn’t miss much.
I’m telling you, congressional Democrats have to be nervous. The generic ballot now sits at 50-50, and Republicans are up 4 points from January. After voters heard both parties' messaging, 51% said they were more likely to vote Republican for Congress — and among likely voters, the Republican lead stretched to 4 points.
Democrats tried leaning on anti-tariff messaging, and 61% found it believable. But it only delivered a net +2 boost. That's spending a lot of political capital for a difference within the poll’s margin of error. In the end, Republican messaging on curbed spending, closed borders, and reduced crime moved more voters than Democrats' entire playbook combined, and that’s a problem for the Democrats.
It gets better. A whopping 85% of voters say only U.S. citizens should vote — a strong majority across party lines. Seventy-one percent support the SAVE America Act, including half of Democrats. Specific provisions poll even higher: voter ID at 81%, removing non-citizens from rolls at 80%, and proof of citizenship at 75%.
Even on foreign policy, Trump and the GOP come out on top. The poll found that 73% back Trump's Gaza deal, and 71% support Israel over Hamas. Sixty-six percent want Trump to maintain weapons support and sanctions pressure on Russia over Ukraine, and 63% want U.S. security guarantees for Ukraine in any peace deal. Meanwhile, 67% want an aggressive American posture against hemisphere leaders backed by drug cartels.
Democrats are betting voters will sour on Trump. If anything, this poll has found that the public sees them as too radical, while the GOP is putting forth policies with widespread support. All of this is a recipe for the GOP to defy precedent and do well in November’s midterm elections.
Want to support fearless journalism that exposes the Left and tells the stories the media won’t? PJ Media delivers the truth and holds the powerful accountable. Become a VIP member today—your support fuels our mission and unlocks exclusive content, podcasts, an ad-free experience, and more.
Use code FIGHT for 60% off. It's a great time to join our movement. Join now and stand for America-first journalism!
Join the conversation as a VIP Member