Something strange is happening in California. The state's Democratic establishment is quietly sweating over a race they've dominated for years, and it could be their own fault. A structural trap that was probably designed to shut Republicans out may finally be working against Democrats. The question now is whether California Democrats can get out of their own way in time.
California's "jungle primary," created by voters under Proposition 14 in 2010, was sold as a reform to elevate moderates and break partisan gridlock. Under the system, all candidates compete on a single primary ballot regardless of party, and only the top 2 vote-getters — again, regardless of party — advance to the general election.
The RealClearPolitics average: Republican Steve Hilton is leading the entire field at 15%; GOP Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco is next with 14.3%; then Democrat Eric Swalwell at 12%; former Rep. Katie Porter at 11.3%; billionaire Tom Steyer at 9%; and Xavier Becerra at 4.7%. The Republican electorate has essentially consolidated around two candidates, while Democratic voters are divided.
That math is a nightmare for a party accustomed to not having any competition from the GOP. Still, the situation has gotten bad enough that California Democratic Party Chair Rusty Hicks took the step of writing an open letter Tuesday, urging weaker candidates to bow out before the March 6 filing deadline. "It is imperative every candidate conducts an honest assessment of your candidacy and campaign," Hicks wrote. He didn't name names — but the public shaming of fellow Democrats by a sitting party chair is, by any measure, a sign of panic.
Hicks set a hard line: candidates who can't show "meaningful progress towards winning the Primary Election in the coming weeks" should "suspend your campaign and endorse another candidate on or before April 15th."
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The primary is June 2, and the stakes go well beyond Sacramento. A general election ballot with two Republicans as the choices would depress Democratic turnout statewide, potentially costing the party votes in other elections, like U.S. House seats.
As Hicks framed it, "We simply can't let that happen.”
Meanwhile, Chad Bianco has been blunt about why Republicans are leading: "Two Republicans have been ahead in the polls for the last six months," he told Fox News Digital. "Democrat policy is indefensible.”
Hicks himself acknowledged the improbability that the election could come down to two Republicans while refusing to dismiss the threat. "The likelihood of two Republicans effectively 'locking out' California Democrats from the contest for Governor in the General Election is relatively low," he wrote. "However, while it is implausible, it is not impossible.” That's a stunning sentence for a party chair to put in writing about his own state — a state where Democrats outnumber Republicans by millions.
I’m enjoying it, to be honest.
California built a primary system under the guise of punishing political extremism. In a way, it finally is, and that’s what has Democrats so nervous.
