Gov. Gavin Newsom has basically been running for president for years; he just hasn’t formally launched a campaign yet. But just like Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, Newsom’s dreams of higher office may have hit a wall called reality. It looks like his presidential dreams may be evaporating faster than he can schedule his next podcast appearance, and it’s not just because of his recent racist remarks.
CNN's own chief data analyst, Harry Enten, delivered some pretty brutal numbers on the California governor on Tuesday, and the picture isn't pretty. Enten was discussing the state of the 2028 Democratic primary field when he revealed that Newsom is losing his grip on the race before it even officially begins.
"It seems to me that Gavin Newsom is flailing a little bit, at least compared to where he was prior," he said.
One could argue Newsom is actually in a strong spot because he leads the Democratic field, but here’s the thing: he only barely leads. Enten noted that just 19% currently back Newsom, and Kamala Harris is right behind him at 18%. Behind them are Pete Buttigieg at 13% and Ocasio-Cortez at 12%.
"This is just a total clown car,” Enten concluded. “It is a total mess. There is no clear frontrunner at this particular point on the Democratic side. Who the heck knows who the nominee is going to be in two years?"
When CNN's own guy is calling the Democratic primary a clown car, that’s a bad sign. But here’s where things get really bad.
Enten pointed out that this leaderless moment is historically unusual for the party. Going back through recent cycles, there was always someone commanding at least 25% in early polling: Biden in 2021, Hillary Clinton in both 2008 and 2016, Al Gore in 2000 and 2004.
This time? Nothing. No runaway frontrunner.
"You have to go all the way back, all the way back from when I wasn't even in elementary school yet, not even in pre-K yet, to 1992 — that was the last cycle in which there was no clear frontrunner at this point," Enten said. "Very unusual."
Related: Wow, CNN Just Called Out Newsom’s Privileged Past Right to His Face
But it's the Newsom-specific numbers that should worry Team Gavin the most. On the Kalshi prediction markets, his odds of actually winning the Democratic nomination have cratered, going from 37% three months ago to just 28% today.
“Down he goes,” Enten remarked.
And then there's the Google search data, which is perhaps the most telling indicator of genuine public interest.
"Google searches for Gavin Newsom down 63% from the August peak," Enten noted. That August spike came when Newsom launched his social media war against President Trump — a move that generated real buzz among Democratic voters at the time. But that buzz has clearly fizzled. "Maybe that interest is waning off just a little bit," Enten said, adding that this is a problem considering how early it is.
A 63% collapse in search interest is a huge red flag for any prospective presidential candidate, especially one who has essentially been running a shadow campaign built entirely on visibility and vibes.
But the worst thing about these numbers for Newsom is that they likely don’t even take into account his recent racist comments, in which he suggested that being black is like having a learning disability.
Seriously, his 2028 campaign-in-waiting is starting to look less like a launch pad and more like a slow-motion train wreck. Gavin Newsom's 2028 presidential run may go down as the most elaborately hyped non-campaign in modern political history.
