What’s going to happen in November’s midterms? Historically speaking, Democrats should do well. With the recent exception of the 2002 midterm elections, the party in power typically loses seats. But, I also think that there’s a chance that the GOP can defy precedent and hold onto its majorities, which will not only be important for advancing President Trump’s agenda, but also for preventing another bogus impeachment.
Senior members of Trump’s political brain trust quietly gathered Tuesday night at the Capitol Hill Club for a closed-door strategy session about the midterms. This was no cocktail party; it was a two-hour briefing on the battlefield that will decide control of Congress this fall.
Political journalist Mark Halperin got the detailed scoop on what went down, and frankly, much of it tracks with what I've been writing for months.
The room included cabinet members such as Scott Bessent, Howard Lutnick, Robert F. Kennedy Jr., and Sean Duffy, along with their top aides and a roster of veteran operatives. Trump's Chief of Staff, Susie Wiles, opened the session with brief remarks before handing things over to pollster and strategist Tony Fabrizio, who walked the group through roughly 25 slides covering voter demographics, key issues, and which messages will actually cut through the noise.
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Fabrizio's central argument was blunt: The economy owns the midterm conversation. This is absolutely true. Joe Biden learned this the hard way when he spent years insisting the economy was strong while voters watched their grocery bills explode. Telling people things are good is never a substitute for them actually feeling it for themselves. You can talk about increased wages, unemployment rates, inflation, and the Dow being above 50,000 until you’re blue in the face, but it doesn’t mean anything if the voters don’t feel it.
According to Fabrizio, the messaging that tests best includes banning stock trading for members of Congress, requiring transparency in health insurance pricing and claims reimbursement, cutting prescription drug costs, and highlighting the Trump tax cuts. Housing affordability — especially for younger voters — also landed as a top-tier concern.
Here's the part that's a little uncomfortable but needs to be said: Fabrizio cautioned the group against leaning too hard on border security as a winning argument. That's frustrating, because border security has been one of Trump's most tangible first-term achievements. But the data says what it says.
NEWS
— Mark Halperin (@MarkHalperin) February 18, 2026
Last night on Capitol Hill, the senior Trump political command briefed its core team on the midterms.
Some of what occurred was previously reported on by @SophiaCai99 of @politico.
Here is a more detailed account, according to one of the attendees at the meeting at the…
According to Halperin, attendees left the meeting focused, not rattled. Ultimately, messaging is important, but two opposing forces will determine the election’s outcome. The first is that Democrats carry the structural advantage that history always gives the opposition party. The second is that if voters feel the economy is improving under Trump's second term, the GOP can absolutely hold Congress.
