Full disclosure: Since reading Hillbilly Elegy and tracking his career as a senator, I’ve been rooting strongly for JD Vance to one day run for the presidency and win. Since Donald Trump announced his third candidacy in 2022, that very day I voiced my preference for Vance to be his vice presidential nominee. And since Trump won the election in November, I was elated that Vance was now the logical shoo-in for the Republican presidential nominee for 2028.
But then the second Trump administration kicked into high gear, and something unexpected happened. Secretary of State Marco Rubio started absolutely crushing it.
And then something else unexpected also happened. With regards to Iran, Republicans are torn between the MAGA majority that wants us to finish off the mullahs once and for all, and a smaller but disproportionately influential crowd of political naifs who think we can and should be trying to cut a deal with a cabal of sociopathic, apocalyptic Islamic terrorists who have literally broken their word on every promise they’ve ever made. For reasons I have yet to fathom, Vance has willingly taken the lead of this latter group.
This was an unforced error, but a potentially fatal one for his political career. And for the record, this isn’t a statement on the merits of the Iran war. It’s a statement on its handling. You can agree or disagree with Roosevelt’s entry into the Second World War, but there should be no disagreement on the fact that, once we did enter it, the absolute dumbest thing we could have theoretically done is call a unilateral cease fire in April 1945 and ask Hitler if he’s ready to negotiate, on equal terms, from his surrounded bunker.
So let’s call it what it is. Vance made a mistake by publicly taking the lead of the let’s-make-a-deal flank of the Trump administration. He came out swinging strongly for the MOU “ceasefire” that Iran was already violating as Vance was announcing it. In doing so, he made himself, the Trump administration, and the United States look gullible and overeager.
That’s fine. Voters forgive politicians their mistakes… on the premise that you learn from your mistakes rather than repeat them. But Vance has since doubled down. In an interview with Joe Rogan, he alleged his Republican critics of wanting a ground invasion (we don’t) and of wanting the war to continue “indefinitely” (we don’t. On the contrary, we’d like to win it and go home), and blamed the failure of the ceasefire not on the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps thugs who broke it, but on Israel.
This is the path Vance has taken, and it is a path I cannot follow him down. Nobody can say Vance didn’t make a sincere, wholehearted effort to secure a long-term, workable cease fire. But the effort failed. And it failed not because of any intransigence from our closest regional (and arguably global) ally, but because we tried to build a castle on sand with a group of incestuous fanatics who would murder our children and laugh as they did so.
Those duplicitous JOOOS didn't betray Vance. Islamic terrorists who make sport out of hoodwinking American administration after American administration after American administration lied to his face. Vance should have admitted as much, assessed the failure for how it happened and why, recalibrated where necessary, and moved forward with a more realistic approach. Own the mistake rather than blaming your closest friend.
Instead, he took the Tucker Carlson route. All due respect, this is not what I’m looking for in a president.
Now, let’s get to Marco Rubio.
I was initially skeptical of him being anywhere near the White House. I always remembered him from his involvement in the Gang of Eight back in 2013 that tried to push “comprehensive immigration reform” (i.e. blanket amnesty) through Congress, despite having campaigned against it. Since then, I’ve always eyed Rubio with suspicion as a RINO in conservative clothing.
But Rubio 2.0 is a true phoenix from the ashes. His impressive tenure as Secretary of State has been unabashedly pro-American. His speech in February at the Munich Security Conference was MAGA gold, correctly calling out Western weakness as a choice and unfettered immigration as a Faustian suicide pact. He has sat through Congressional hearings and has pointedly and patiently disemboweled Democrats who make the mistake of trying to match wits with him. His handling of the Western hemisphere (Venezuela, Cuba, Mexico, etc.) are textbook examples of how to successfully wield diplomatic power.
And you’ll notice that when it comes to Iran and the MOU, Rubio is nowhere to be seen. He smelled this carcass a mile away and wants nothing to do with it. As a result, his reputation has emerged unscathed.
None of this is to say that I think Vance has completely left the reservation. He is an intelligent, charismatic figure, and overall has been a tremendous asset for the MAGA movement. But his judgment and leadership through the Iran war raises serious concerns, as has his deflecting responses to those concerns.
Vance can make a compelling argument, and he has shone impressively in debates. But this is when he’s up against Tim Walz or the crusty magpies on The View. By contrast, Marco Rubio has experience debating Donald Trump, Ted Cruz, Rand Paul, Scott Walker, Mike Huckabee, and Chris Christie… all at the same time. Should Vance take the debate stage against Rubio, he’d have a much tougher task than simply appearing sane next to a man who thinks boys need tampons.
Yes, I’m aware that Rubio previously stated that he wouldn’t challenge JD Vance if he ran for president. But that was in December 2025, and the political landscape is changing by the day. The 2028 primary season is a long way off, and anything can happen between now and then.
And I’m not the only one who thinks so. Behind closed doors, President Trump himself has reportedly been prodding advisors about what they think of Rubio making a run for the presidency. At a recent event, he asked a group of donors about both Vance and Rubio. The applause was louder for Rubio.
Ahh, but those are just the rich, selfish RINO donors, you say? Maybe. But it would seem the Republican base agrees. In late March, a straw poll at the Conservative Political Action Conference had Vance leading Rubio a comfortable 61/35 in a hypothetical 2028 primary race. But by mid-July, an Emerson College poll had Vance running neck and neck against Rubio, 39/38 (with other candidates garnering single digits).
And by early August? Another straw poll, this one taken at the Western Conservative Summit, had Republican voters preferring Rubio over Vance as our 2028 nominee by 57/21. Percentage-wise, Vance was closer in voter preference to Mike Pence (5 percent) and Thomas Massie (4 percent) than he was to Marco Rubio.
In less than half a year, Rubio’s and Vance’s polling numbers have essentially flip-flopped, and to a degree that is nothing short of a political earthquake. And while I’m inherently skeptical of polling, CNN or The New Republic didn't take these polls. Either conservative pollsters at conservative gatherings or mainstream pollsters at least specifically targeting conservative voters from among the broader electorate conducted them.
I’ve repeatedly made the argument on this site that, fairly or unfairly, the outcome of the Iran war will define Trump’s second term. There is an isolationist streak that runs through a vocal minority of the MAGA base that treats foreign policy almost as a pesky distraction, and seeks solace in simply ignoring the outside world so we can focus on domestic issues. But that’s not how it works. It never has. You may not be interested in Islam, but Islam is interested in you.
That same MAGA isolationist streak eventually bleeds into domestic affairs as well. Don’t like California or Illinois? That’s fine, dear, we’ll just move to Texas or Florida. But the degenerates who screwed up California and Illinois are also moving to Texas and Florida. And they come not as refugees, but as missionaries, fully convinced that what Texas and Florida need are to be more like California and Illinois. In that regard, leftists behave a lot like Islamists. You may not be interested in socialism, but socialism is interested in you.
Problems aren’t something the majority of the MAGA base chooses to run from or ignore. Problems are something the majority of the MAGA base chooses to confront head on, unapologetically and with a clear comprehension of what the problem is and where it lies. And as of right now, the MAGA voters are voicing their preference for Rubio as their next standard bearer, because he’s shown a consistent propensity to do exactly that.
All this could change tomorrow. Rubio could misstep. Vance could evolve. A hitherto unknown dark horse candidate could emerge out of nowhere and upend everything, the way Trump did in 2015.
But if the election were held today, my money and my vote are on Rubio.
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